Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, suggesting short - selling silver on rallies [1]. - For base metals, copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing; alumina is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered; industrial silicon is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and tin is expected to be in an interval shock [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel is expected to be in a balanced supply - demand situation with obvious structural differentiation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; iron ore is expected to have a slightly stronger supply - demand situation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; coking coal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and short - selling the 2509 contract can be tried [5]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal is expected to follow the international cost - end in the medium term; corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and weaker; sugar futures can be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton can wait and see with a shock strategy; logs can wait and see; palm oil is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term; eggs are expected to be volatile and weaker; pork is expected to be in a shock adjustment [6][7][8]. - For energy and chemicals, LLDPE is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; PVC can wait and see; PX can wait and see, and PTA can look for short - term positive spread opportunities and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term; rubber is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term; glass can wait and see; PP is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; MEG can wait and see; crude oil can look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel; styrene is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; soda ash can wait and see [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. International gold prices rose 0.08% to $3398 per ounce, and international silver prices rose 0.09% to $38.325 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The White House may not increase taxes on 100 - ounce gold bars; a Fed official supports three interest rate cuts this year; the central bank increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months; domestic gold ETF funds flowed back, and gold and silver inventories in different regions changed [1]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on gold; short - sell silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals - Copper - Market Performance: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated and were slightly stronger [2]. - Fundamentals: The US dollar index is expected to weaken; the supply of copper ore is still tight, and the scrap copper is in short supply; the global visible inventory increased by 27,000 tons, and the domestic consumption is in the off - season [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Performance: On Friday, the 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [2]. - Fundamentals: The smelters maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly; the consumption has no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate is stable [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing [2]. - Alumina - Market Performance: On Friday, the 2509 contract of alumina closed at 3170 yuan/ton, down 2.19% [2]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina is stable; electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, focusing on the support at 3100 yuan; long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [3]. - Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 8710 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. - Fundamentals: The price followed the rise of coking coal last week; a "counter - involution" initiative boosted market sentiment; the spot price declined slightly; the supply increased, and the demand of different downstream industries changed [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing [3]. - Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On Friday, the main LC2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, up 7.73% [3]. - Fundamentals: A mining area of CATL stopped production; the supply - side production capacity recovered, and the demand in August was in the peak season; the inventory increased due to supply recovery [3]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to rise to 85,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time [3]. - Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in line with expectations; the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic; new brands were added for futures registration [3]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. - Tin - Market Performance: On Friday, tin prices fluctuated and were weaker [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is weak; the inventory decreased by 330 tons [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be in an interval shock in the short term [3]. Black Industry - Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3207 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of building materials is neutral, and the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates is stable; the futures discount of rebar widened, and the market sentiment cooled [5]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the 2510 contract, with a reference range of 3160 - 3240 yuan [5]. - Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand is slightly stronger; the iron - water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin expanded; the supply is in line with the seasonal law, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal law [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan [5]. - Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1213.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron - water production decreased, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed; the fifth round of coke price increase was implemented; the inventory in different links was differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and try to short - sell the 2509 contract, with a reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans fell last Friday [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term; the demand is dominated by South America, and the export demand of US soybeans is weak [6]. - Trading Strategy: Follow the international cost - end in the medium term, and focus on the weather in production areas and tariff policies [6]. - Corn - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of corn was weaker, and the spot price fell [6]. - Fundamentals: Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased; the new - crop corn cost decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weaker [6]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [6]. - Sugar - Market Performance: ICE raw sugar rose 0.43% last week, and Zhengzhou sugar fell 0.84% [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Brazil increased, and the domestic processing sugar put pressure on the spot price; Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures rebounded last Friday, and international crude oil prices continued to fall [7]. - Fundamentals: The US cotton export contract reached 108.20% of the annual expected export volume; the domestic cotton futures rebounded, and the textile and clothing export decreased [7]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with a shock strategy in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Logs - Market Performance: The 09 contract of logs closed at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.10% [7]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of logs rose, and the market has expectations for the future; it is mainly based on the delivery logic in the short term, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [7]. - Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose slightly last Friday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia increased seasonally, and the export decreased; it is expected to accumulate inventory [7]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term, focusing on the production in production areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - Eggs - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound, and the spot price rose slightly over the weekend [7]. - Fundamentals: The egg - laying rate of hens decreased seasonally, and the demand of downstream food factories increased seasonally; the supply is sufficient, and the cost decreased [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [7]. - Pork - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of pork was stronger, and the spot price rebounded over the weekend [8]. - Fundamentals: The consumption decreased seasonally, and the supply increased in August; the supply will continue to increase in the medium term [8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be in a shock adjustment [8]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract of LLDPE continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased, and the import is expected to decrease; the demand for agricultural films increased, and other demands were stable [9]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [9]. - PVC - Market Performance: The V09 contract closed at 4998, down 0.1% [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak; the inventory accumulated [9]. - Trading Strategy: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [9]. - PTA - Market Performance: The PX price was 831 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price was 4670 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX increased, and the supply of PTA decreased; the polyester load was stable, and the inventory pressure was relieved [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for PX; look for short - term positive spread opportunities for PTA and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - Rubber - Market Performance: The price of rubber fluctuated and was stronger last week, with the RU2601 contract up 2.57% [9]. - Fundamentals: The raw material prices in Thailand were stable, and the downstream tire production and inventory situation changed [9][10]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term [10]. - Glass - Market Performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1065, up 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The production and sales of glass decreased, and the inventory accumulated; the downstream demand was general [10]. - Trading Strategy: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [10]. - PP - Market Performance: The main contract of PP continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the demand in different downstream industries was differentiated [10]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [10]. - MEG - Market Performance: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4465 yuan/ton, and the basis was 75 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply is at a high level, and the import is expected to be low; the polyester load is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [10]. - Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell continuously last week due to economic concerns and geopolitical factors [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the US is stable; the refining profit is at a high level [10]. - Trading Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel [10]. - Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract of styrene fluctuated slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [11]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly; the downstream demand is under pressure, and the export demand is a focus [11]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [11]. - Soda Ash - Market Performance: The sa09 contract closed at 1242, down 0.4% [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the inventory is high; the downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to reduce production [11]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [11].
商品期货早班车-20250811
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-08-11 03:16