蛋市“凉”秋，供需失衡加剧

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. The spot market also showed weakness, with prices in both the main production and sales areas dropping. The imbalance between supply and demand in the egg market has intensified, with high supply and weak demand due to factors such as the increase in newly - laid hens, high - temperature weather, and low consumer confidence. Although the market demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase of eggs during the peak season may be weaker than expected due to the pressure on the breeding side [5][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Trends Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. By the end of last Friday, the JD2509 contract was reported at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 153,259 lots and an open interest of 203,664 lots [15]. (2) Spot Price - In the main production areas, the average egg price last week was 3.01 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty, or 7.10%. In the main sales areas, the average price was 3.04 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20 yuan per catty, or 6.17%. The decline in prices in the production areas affected the sales areas, and downstream procurement became more cautious [19]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks was 3.11 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 yuan per chick, or 4.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The current market is characterized by an abundant supply of chicken chicks and weak demand [23]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.71 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 yuan per catty, or 3.22%. The decline in egg prices hit the confidence of farmers, increasing the willingness to sell, but the terminal demand was weak [27]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - In - production Laying Hens Inventory: In July, the national inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.292 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.04%. The number of newly - laid hens has increased month - on - month [32]. - Production Area Shipment Volume: The weekly shipment volume of the representative market in the main production areas was 6216.03 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.68%. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and downstream purchasers are cautious [36]. - Old Hen Slaughter Volume: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens at the sample points was 452,200, a week - on - week increase of 1.53%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, unchanged from the previous week. Some farmers chose to slaughter old hens, but most still maintained a pressure - stocking state [40]. (2) Demand Side - Sales Area Arrival Volume: The arrival volume in the Beijing and Guangdong markets decreased last week. In Beijing, the trading activity was low in the first half of the week and increased slightly at the end of the week. In Guangdong, the purchasing enthusiasm increased in the middle and late weeks [45]. - Sales Area Sales Volume: As of last Thursday, the weekly egg sales volume was 6003.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.44%. The sales volume was slightly boosted by the downstream replenishment demand [49]. (3) Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.89 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.15 days. The egg inventory increased week - on - week due to increased supply and weak demand [53]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, or 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.53 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan per catty, or 82.76%. The increase in soybean meal prices pushed up the feed cost [57]. 3. Market Outlook and Strategy - The current supply of eggs remains high, and the imbalance between supply and demand restricts the increase in egg prices during the peak season. Although the demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase may be weaker than expected. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds in the medium term [8][58][59].