7月通胀数据点评：“反内卷”政策显效，工业品价格降幅收窄

Group 1: Inflation Data - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was 0.0%, down from 0.1% in the previous month, while the month-on-month increase was 0.4%, reversing from a decrease of -0.1%[1] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to 0.8%, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the highest level in nearly 15 months[2] - The July CPI month-on-month increase of 0.4% is slightly below the average of 0.42% for July from 2020 to 2024[2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, while the month-on-month decline was 0.2%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Factors contributing to the PPI decline include increased summer rainfall affecting construction demand and enhanced hydropower generation due to abundant river water[3] - The impact of "anti-involution" policies has led to a reduction in the price decline of related industries, with cement and coal prices decreasing by 0.3 and 1.9 percentage points, respectively[3] Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - The marginal improvement in CPI is driven by summer travel demand and rising gold prices, but high food base effects and pressure in the real estate market limit price recovery[4] - The ongoing inventory reduction among enterprises and supply-demand imbalances are primary reasons for the prolonged low prices of industrial products[4] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies, unexpected interest rate changes, and concentrated credit events[4]