Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The price of bauxite is supported by the rainy season in Guinea and the uncertainty of a large mine's复产. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, while the downstream demand of aluminum is affected by the off - season and the decline of PV installation rush. The aluminum price rebounds at the support level but still faces inventory accumulation pressure, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips in August [3]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint - Fundamental Analysis: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite remains stable at $74 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite mining and transportation, and the resumption of a large mine encounters variables. The operating capacity of alumina increases by 700,000 tons to 95.35 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increases by 42,000 tons to 3.285 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases by 30,000 tons to 44.259 million tons. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's operating rate rises by 0.1% to 58.7%, but shows a weakening trend due to the off - season and PV factors. The aluminum ingot inventory accumulates, and the aluminum rod inventory decreases. The market for recycled cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate continues to decline. The aluminum price rebounds at the support level but is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [3]. - Strategy Suggestion: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [4]. 2. Macro - economic Indicators No text summary information provided, only some charts about US Treasury yields, US dollar index, and RMB exchange rate are presented [6][7]. 3. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan remain stable due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as frequent rainfall. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite remains stable at $74 per dry ton, and the bauxite shipping volume shows a downward trend due to the rainy season and the uncertainty of a large mine's resumption [10]. 4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina is 113.02 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons; the operating capacity is 95.35 million tons, with a weekly increase of 700,000 tons, and the operating rate is 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price is 3,289.3 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 10.6 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory is 3.285 million tons, with a weekly increase of 42,000 tons. Newly invested capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north are gradually contributing to production. Some alumina enterprises are under maintenance [14]. 5. Alumina Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and shipping volume are presented [16][17][18][19]. 6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged weekly; the operating capacity is 44.259 million tons, with a weekly increase of 30,000 tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases steadily, with the remaining small - scale capacity in Guizhou Anshun resuming production, the replacement capacity of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin being put into production, and the technical transformation project of Baise Yinhai gradually resuming power - on production [23]. 7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum forward curve,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profit are presented [25]. 8. Inventory No text summary information provided, only some charts about aluminum rod, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories are presented [27][28][29][30]. 9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable at 53.1% weekly. The market is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises in the southwest and south China are on high - temperature holidays. Although the orders of large sample factories are relatively stable, the overall operating rate continues to decline [33]. 10. Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about cast aluminum alloy prices, forward curve, price difference, and import profit are presented [35][37][38][39]. 11. Downstream开工 - Aluminum Profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreases by 0.5% to 49.5% weekly. Industrial profiles, especially automotive and PV profiles, show a weakening trend, and construction profiles have low order volumes due to weak terminal demand [43]. - Aluminum Plates and Strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increases by 0.8% to 64% weekly. Some downstream industries such as automotive, electronics 3C, and construction start to stock up for the peak season, but the industry has insufficient expectations for the peak - season stocking to boost consumption in August [43]. - Aluminum Cables and Wires: The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remains stable at 61.8% weekly. Some grid orders need to be delivered, but some aluminum alloy cable orders are still average. There are significant differences in the shipment expectations of enterprises in August, and the traditional peak - season characteristics have not fully emerged [46]. - Primary Aluminum Alloys: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increases by 1% to 55.6% weekly. In the context of a significant decline in the output of primary aluminum processing sectors such as aluminum rods and aluminum poles, the primary aluminum alloy sector undertakes the task of aluminum - water alloying to some extent. The industry is in a weak and stable pattern due to weak demand in the off - season and the impact of high - temperature holidays [46].
铝产业链周报-20250811
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-11 03:23