铜周报20250810：宏观多空博弈，基本面驱动有限，沪铜震荡-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Macro factors present a multi - empty game, fundamental factors have limited driving force, and Shanghai copper is in a volatile state [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Impact Factor Analysis 3.1.1 Macro - US ISM Services PMI in July was only 50.1, employment index shrank, and price index reached a new high since October 2022. Fed Governor Cook signaled a possible near - term rate cut [5] - China's exports denominated in US dollars in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1% [5][38] - Beijing removed restrictions on the number of housing purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road for eligible families [5] - The US and Russia are reported to be close to a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a meeting between the US and Russian leaders is tentatively scheduled for next weekend [5] 3.1.2 Demand - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, with weak demand in the off - season. However, the operating rate is expected to rebound next week, and new orders are expected to be relatively good [5] - The transaction area of new homes in 10 key cities last week increased week - on - week, while that of second - hand homes decreased [5] - The production volume of air conditioners in August decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period last year [5][34] - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles in July increased by 12% year - on - year but decreased by 11.2% month - on - month [5][31] - The overall production volume of photovoltaic components in August changed little month - on - month [5][32] 3.1.3 Supply - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates in nine ports this week increased by 98,000 tons to 619,600 tons [5][17] - A smelter in Indonesia extended its maintenance, and copper concentrates flowed out, causing the TC of imported copper concentrates to rise [5] - China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in July were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.4%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 17.314 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8% [5] - Only one smelter in China is under maintenance in August, but the overall raw material is tight, and the number of smelters reducing production has increased. The output of electrolytic copper is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [5][20] 3.1.4 Inventory - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory continued to increase. LME copper inventory continued to rise, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [5][24][26] - On Thursday, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 133,300 tons, 1,000 tons less than on Monday and 12,000 tons more than last Thursday. The bonded - area copper inventory was 80,900 tons, 200 tons more than last Thursday [5] - On Friday, the LME copper inventory was 155,850 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,100 tons; the COMEX copper inventory was 264,140 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,459 short tons [5] 3.1.5 Spread - The spot premiums of premium copper, flat copper, and wet - process copper on Friday were 160, 95, and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The inflow of imported copper caused the spot premium to decline, but the premium remained firm due to the low supply of domestic copper [5][10] - The spread between Shanghai copper contracts 09 and 10 in the afternoon on Friday was 20 yuan/ton, with little change week - on - week. The 0 - 3M backwardation of LME copper widened week - on - week [5][12] 3.2 Price Data - The inflow of imported copper led to a decrease in spot premiums, but the premiums remained firm due to limited domestic copper supply [10] - The 0 - 3M backwardation of LME copper widened week - on - week [12] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The average weekly price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $4.03/ton to - $38.06/ton [14] - The inventory of copper concentrates in nine ports increased by 98,000 tons to 619,600 tons [17] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper continued to narrow [18] - Only one smelter is under maintenance in August, but the number of smelters reducing production has increased, and the output of electrolytic copper is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [20] - There is an import inversion for copper [21] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper and bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week, and LME and COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate [24][26] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, but it is expected to rebound next week [27] - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles in July increased by 12% year - on - year but decreased by 11.2% month - on - month [31] - The overall production volume of photovoltaic components in August changed little month - on - month [32] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August decreased by 4.9% compared with the same period last year, with air conditioner production decreasing by 2.8% [34] 3.4 Macro Economic Data - China's exports denominated in US dollars in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1% [38] - US ISM Services PMI in July was only 50.1, employment index shrank, and price index reached a new high since October 2022 [39] - Fed Governor Cook signaled a possible near - term rate cut [42]