供应收缩，钢价震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include the joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization" by seven departments such as the central bank, which supports mining enterprises to increase reserves and production of important minerals. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, and from January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [1][4]. - Fundamental data shows that last week, the output of rebar was 21.21 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons month - on - month, with apparent demand of 2.11 million tons (an increase of 70,000 tons), factory inventory of 1.68 million tons (an increase of 60,000 tons), social inventory of 3.88 million tons (an increase of 40,000 tons), and total inventory of 5.57 million tons (an increase of 100,000 tons). The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.15 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons, with factory inventory of 780,000 tons (a decrease of 10,000 tons), social inventory of 2.79 million tons (an increase of 100,000 tons), total inventory of 3.57 million tons (an increase of 90,000 tons), and apparent demand of 3.06 million tons (a decrease of 140,000 tons) [1][4]. - Overall, last week's industrial data was weak, with a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and accelerated inventory accumulation. Due to the expected military parade production restrictions in the north in the middle of the month, the expectation of supply contraction has increased, and the inventory pressure is generally not large. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3213 | 10 | 0.31 | 9240311 | 2947936 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3428 | 27 | 0.79 | 3118646 | 1428587 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 790.0 | 7.0 | 0.89 | 869369 | 335365 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1227.0 | 134.5 | 12.31 | 16090961 | 915031 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1653.5 | 68.5 | 4.32 | 230503 | 53400 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend, with flat macro news and narrowed market fluctuations. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3070 (+10) Yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar quote was 3340 (-20) Yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3450 (+40) Yuan/ton [4]. - The macro and fundamental data are consistent with the core views, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [4][5]. 3.3 Industry News - The central bank and other seven departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization" to support the development of the mining industry and increase the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources [6][7]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, lower than the expected 104,000, and the data hit a 9 - month low. After the data was released, President Trump criticized Powell and called for a rate cut [10]. - In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, and from January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [1][4][10]. - In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion Yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion Yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion Yuan, an increase of 4.8%. In the first seven months, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 25.7 trillion Yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [10]. - From August 16th to 25th, Tangshan's independent steel rolling enterprises may be shut down at any time according to weather conditions, and they must be shut down from August 25th to September 3rd. If the shutdown and production restriction measures are implemented, the daily output of 35 billet - rolling section steel enterprises in Tangshan will be affected by about 90,000 tons [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the futures and spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, basis trends, spot regional spread trends, steel mill profit trends, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption trends from 2021 - 2025 [9][11][19][28][32] etc.