中辉有色观点-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting "Buy on Dips" [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending "Buy on Rebounds" [1] - Copper: ★★★, indicating "Hold Long Positions" [1] - Zinc: ★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Lead: ★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Tin: ★★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Aluminum: ★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Nickel: ★★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, "Bullish" [1] Core Views - Gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as US - Russia summit, US policies, and central bank gold purchases. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver has a long - term upward trend [1][2][3][4] - Copper prices are boosted by overseas copper concentrate disruptions, a weak US dollar, and better - than - expected domestic exports. Short - term long positions should be held, and long - term optimism is maintained [1][7][8] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term cautious bullishness is advised, and long - term opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped [1][10][11] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to the off - season effect and weak downstream demand. Short - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][14][15] - Nickel prices face pressure on rebounds due to increasing supply and high inventory. Shorting on rebounds is suggested [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short - term fundamentals, funds, and sentiment. Long positions should be held [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold prices are at a high level due to factors such as the upcoming Putin - Trump meeting and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - Basic Logic: The US gold tariff issue, high global tariffs, and the upcoming US - Russia summit affect gold prices. In the long - term, the logic of a gold bull market remains unchanged [3] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, there is clear support for gold at around 770, and silver is in a trading range of 9100 - 9350. Long - term long positions are recommended [4] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, testing the pressure level of 79,000 [7] - Industrial Logic: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates globally, and domestic copper production has increased. The spot market is tight in the short - term, but downstream demand is weak due to the off - season and high prices [7] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term long positions should be held, and long - term optimism is maintained. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78000, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9650, 9950] USD/ton [8] Zinc - Market Review: London zinc oscillated strongly, while Shanghai zinc traded in a narrow range [10] - Industrial Logic: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Demand from downstream industries shows mixed performance [10] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term cautious bullishness is advised, and long - term opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22400, 23000], and London zinc in the range of [2780, 2880] USD/ton [11] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined again [13] - Industrial Logic: The cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased in July, and inventory increased. Downstream demand is weak. Overseas bauxite imports are high, and alumina supply is expected to be loose [14] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term shorting on rebounds is recommended, and attention should be paid to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20000, 20900] [15] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [17] - Industrial Logic: Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are weak, and domestic refined nickel production increased. Stainless steel inventory pressure re - emerged during the off - season [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Shorting on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel is recommended, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000, 122000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 increased in price with increasing positions, rising by more than 5% [21] - Industrial Logic: Terminal demand is about to enter the peak season, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. Production increased, and inventory increased slightly [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Long positions should be held in the range of [75000, 81000] [23]