供应端扰动，铅价重心抬升

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded weakly. The market strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and China's import and export data in July were good, with stable economic growth and a slight increase in market risk appetite [3][6][7]. - Fundamentally, the improvement of the raw material side was not obvious. The processing fees of lead concentrates at home and abroad were under pressure, the supply - demand contradiction of waste batteries still existed, and the price was firm. However, downstream smelters were cautious in high - price purchases, and recyclers lacked confidence [3][6][7]. - In the smelting sector, the production of primary lead smelters was stable. Some smelters were under maintenance for a month in mid - and late August, and the supply in August was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. For secondary lead, the sewage inspection in Anhui affected local smelters, boosting the market sentiment and leading to a rebound in lead prices. Currently, smelters still had large losses, and unplanned production cuts were possible [3][6][7]. - On the demand side, the peak season was dull. In August, the impact of tariffs emerged, new export orders for batteries decreased, and due to high temperatures in many places, some battery enterprises took holidays, with limited production increase space [3][6][7]. - Overall, the rebound of interest rate cut expectations suppressed the US dollar, supporting lead prices. The sewage inspection in Anhui slightly disturbed the supply side and boosted market sentiment, but the impact was controllable. With stable electrolytic lead production, mediocre consumption, and high inventory pressure, the lead price rebound lacked sustainability. In the short term, lead prices were expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance around 17,000 yuan [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From July 18th to July 25th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,735 yuan/ton to 16,845 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 2,003.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 29.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.48 to 8.41; the SHFE inventory decreased by 949 tons to 62,334 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 6,950 tons to 268,375 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 7.11 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 150 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2509 contract of Shanghai lead futures rebounded weakly, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.66%. LME lead stopped falling and rebounded, closing at 2,003.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.49% [5]. - In the spot market as of August 8th, the prices of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang regions were at a discount to the SHFE 2509 contract. Recycled lead smelting enterprises tried to maintain prices, and the recycled refined lead was quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 8th, the LME weekly inventory decreased by 6,950 tons to 268,375 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 949 tons to 62,334 tons. As of August 7th, the SMM five - region social inventory decreased by 800 tons compared with Monday and 0.18 million tons compared with last Thursday. However, due to the approaching delivery of the current - month contract, there was a possibility of inventory stop - falling and rebound [6]. Industry News - As of August 8th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal degree, and the average import ore processing fee was - 60 dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period [8]. - The sewage inspection in Anhui affected local secondary lead smelters. Some smelters stopped production and waited for further notice, while others maintained production [8]. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, inventory, lead ingot premiums, spreads between primary and recycled lead, waste battery prices, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, lead production, social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][12][13][15].