宏观与基本面博弈，铝价震荡

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Weak economic and employment data in the US increased market expectations of economic slowdown and Fed rate cuts, with the possibility of a September rate cut exceeding 90%. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased in July, leading to an increase in aluminum ingot supply. The consumption side has support from the new energy vehicle and power sectors but is also dragged down by issues such as the slowdown in photovoltaic growth, decline in household appliance consumption, and decrease in export growth. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2571.5 yuan/ton to 2615 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 20420 dollars/ton to 20610 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1. LME aluminum inventory increased by 7775 tons to 470575 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5059 tons to 43599 tons [4]. Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20590 yuan/ton, and the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20596 yuan/ton. The US announced new tariff rates, and the initial jobless claims increased. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased slightly, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6]. Market Outlook - Rising Fed rate - cut expectations support the macro - bullish atmosphere, but there are also risks of economic decline due to tariffs and market risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, aluminum ingot supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - peak season. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][7]. Industry News - In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 54.2 tons, and from January to July, it was 346.2 tons, a 7.90% decrease year - on - year. In Q1 2025, the aluminum demand in the US and Canada decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 25% year - on - year [8]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, and other relevant data [9][10].