碳酸锂周报：终端需求旺季来临，碳酸锂维持偏强运行-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for lithium carbonate is approaching the peak season, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to have higher upward elasticity in the short - term. Although the supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, factors such as the peak season of terminal demand and the upward shift of the raw material price center provide support for the price increase. There may be a phased supply - demand mismatch, and attention should be paid to the results of mining license approvals [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - In July 2025, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1%. The total imports and exports of high - tech products in the first seven months increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Rare earth exports decreased by 23% month - on - month, soybean imports reached a record high, and iron ore imports remained above 100 million tons for three consecutive months. The auction of 30 - year US Treasury bonds was dismal, and long - term Treasury yields generally rose. The US ISM Services PMI in July was only 50.1, the employment index contracted, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022. A September interest rate cut is almost a certainty, and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected [3]. Supply Side - This week, the production of lithium carbonate increased significantly, reaching a new high for the year. There were many news about the supply side this week, with enterprises in various regions increasing production and new production capacities being put into operation normally. In July 2025, Chile exported 13,632 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month increase of 33.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.48% [3]. Demand Side - According to data released by the Passenger Car Association, in July, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.826 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.4%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market in July were 987,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.2%. The cumulative growth rate of domestic car sales this year has continuously increased from 1.2% from January to February to 10.8% from January to June, showing a high - base deceleration feature in July [3]. Cost and Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased month - on - month. The quotation of African SC 5% was 530 US dollars per ton, an increase of 15 US dollars per ton compared with last week; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 765 US dollars per ton, an increase of 35 US dollars per ton compared with last week; the market price of lithium mica was 2,100 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week. As of August 8, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 63,155 yuan per ton, a decrease of 232 yuan compared with last week, and the profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 5,979 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,388 yuan [4][48]. Total Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons compared with last week, of which the inventory of upstream smelters was 50,999 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 959 tons. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week, but the spot and futures prices formed a positive feedback, and the peak season for downstream restocking drove the transfer of upstream inventory to the downstream [5][31]. Market Review - As of August 8, LC2511 closed at 76,960 yuan per ton, an increase of 12% compared with last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.38% compared with last week, and the basis discount widened. The position of the main contract was 320,000. This week, the main contract first declined and then rose, stabilizing and rising after the contract change within the week. The fundamentals improved marginally, with both production and inventory decreasing, and the spodumene price at the cost end also provided certain support. The positive feedback between spot and futures prices drove the improvement of the inventory structure, and upstream smelters continued to reduce inventory [7]. Production Volume - As of August 8, the production of lithium carbonate was 20,358 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,120 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 47.31%, a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. Although some individual enterprises were shut down for maintenance, enterprises in other regions were still increasing production. The issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi has not been finalized, and there are many market rumors about Ningde's Jianxiawo Mine. The increase in exports from Chile in July will also increase the supply pressure, and attention should be paid to whether the subsequent production will decline [9]. Other Product Production and Inventory - Lithium hydroxide: As of August 8, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 165 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 35.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. This week, the supply of lithium hydroxide enterprises recovered slightly, the market stably executed long - term contracts, and the downstream ternary material factories had phased restocking needs, boosting market trading activity [11]. - Lithium iron phosphate: As of August 8, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 69,684 tons, a month - on - month increase of 436 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 61.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. As the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is approaching, downstream battery cell factories are stocking up in advance, driving up the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, and the demand on the power side has increased significantly. All enterprises that reduced production in July have returned to normal production levels [13]. - Ternary materials: The downstream demand for ternary materials has increased significantly, and the operating rate of leading enterprises has increased [15]. - Other cathode materials: The demand for other cathode materials shows structural differentiation, and downstream orders are advanced [23]. Cost and Profit of Other Products - Lithium hydroxide: As of August 8, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 62,210 yuan per ton, an increase of 568 yuan compared with last week, and the profit of the lithium hydroxide industry was 3,635 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,473 yuan. This week, the strong price increase of lithium carbonate and the raw material end provided certain support for lithium hydroxide. However, the actual downstream transactions of lithium hydroxide were limited, the market was waiting and watching, the price increase was lower than that of the raw material end, and the industry profit margin was limited [51]. - Lithium iron phosphate: As of August 8, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 33,886 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week, and the loss of lithium iron phosphate was 992 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week. The significant increase in the price of lithium carbonate at the raw material end has raised the theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate, but material factories have no pricing power, the quotation of lithium iron phosphate has increased slightly, and the processing fee has remained unchanged. The proportion of customer - supplied and long - term contract orders in the market is relatively high, and the profit is weakly stable and still in a loss state [54]. - Ternary materials and others: The quotation of downstream products fluctuates with raw materials, and the profit margin is marginally repaired [57].