纯碱周报：纯碱持续承压，“底”在何方？-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the soda ash futures are expected to continue the pattern of price pressure. With the continuous increase in capacity utilization and output on the supply side, high inventory of manufacturers, and a decline in the shipment rate, the spot pressure is significant. The marginal cost support is weakening, and the profit of the dual - alkali process has shrunk significantly. The downstream demand lacks strong support, as the inventory of float glass has increased and the real estate recovery is slow. Under the background of strong supply, weak demand, and high inventory, the main contract SA2601 may continue to be under pressure. If the weekly output remains at 700,000 tons and the inventory reduction is less than expected, there is still a risk of breaking through the lower limit even at a historically low price [8][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated between 1,298 - 1,388 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon closing on August 1, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 fell by 1 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 0.08%, closing at 1,332 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.41%, compared with 80.27% last week. Among them, the light soda ash production was 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. The ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 89.20%, a week - on - week increase of 2.80%, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 6.06%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.27%, a week - on - week increase of 6.10% [7][9][11]. - Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,865,100 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons from Monday, or 0.72%. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 69,300 tons, or 3.86%. The inventory of light soda ash was 717,600 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1,147,500 tons. The inventory at the same period last year was 1,143,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 721,200 tons, or 63.05% [7][14]. - Shipment: According to Longzhong Information on August 7, this week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14 percentage points [16]. - Profit: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali process for soda ash in China was 56.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the dual - alkali process for soda ash (per two tons) was 68.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton [18][21]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation - Float Glass Industry Output: As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 31st. The national float glass production from August 1 - 7, 2025, was 1,117,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94% [24]. - Float Glass Industry Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million weight boxes, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [29]. 3.4 Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 20 yuan/ton, or 3.06%, to 673 yuan/ton. The price of原盐 - 井矿盐in East China remained unchanged at 250 yuan/ton. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in most regions decreased to varying degrees, while the prices in some regions remained unchanged. The price of float glass decreased by 36 yuan/ton, or 2.91%, to 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of photovoltaic glass (2.0) increased by 1 yuan/square meter, or 10%, to 11 yuan/square meter. The price of caustic soda (32% alkali) in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, the price of ammonium chloride (dry ammonium) in Henan remained unchanged at 420 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 80 yuan/ton, or 3.28%, to 2,360 yuan/ton [36].