Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 9 to close at 4,254 ringgit/ton, a 0.21% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 70 to close at 8,980 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 126 to close at 8,400 yuan/ton, a 1.52% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 9,574 yuan/ton, a 0.52% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 1.47 to close at 52.43 cents/pound, a 2.73% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 12.9 to close at 670 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.89% decrease [3]. - The domestic oil and fat sector continued to fluctuate. Palm oil was still in the process of oscillatory adjustment. On one hand, there was long - term support from the biodiesel policy. On the other hand, market institutions expected the Malaysian palm oil inventory in July to increase to 225,000 tons, suppressing short - term price space. Indian palm oil imports decreased in July, and due to the cost - effectiveness advantage, soybean oil substitution imports increased, with some coming from China. Additionally, domestic soybean oil trading volume increased, and the expectation of tight soybean supply in the distant future supported soybean oil, making it relatively strong [3][5]. - Macroscopically, the leaders of the US and Russia will meet in Alaska on the 15th to seek a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but the process is expected to be tortuous. The US dollar index is oscillating at a relatively low level; oil prices dropped significantly during the week, mainly because OPEC+ is expected to increase production, tariffs affect demand prospects, and there may be a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Fundamentally, waiting for the release of today's MPOB report, the abundant supply of Malaysian palm oil suppresses the upside space, while the increasing long - term demand for biodiesel provides support. In the short term, palm oil may oscillate and adjust [3][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 53.9 cents/pound to 52.43 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.47 cents/pound and a 2.73% decline; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose from 4,245 ringgit/ton to 4,254 ringgit/ton, an increase of 9 ringgit/ton and a 0.21% increase; the DCE palm oil 09 contract rose from 8,910 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton and a 0.79% increase; the DCE soybean oil 09 contract rose from 8,274 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan/ton and a 1.52% increase; the CZCE rapeseed oil 09 contract rose from 9,524 yuan/ton to 9,574 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton and a 0.52% increase [3][4][5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat market continued to fluctuate, with palm oil in an adjustment phase due to long - term biodiesel policy support and the expectation of increased Malaysian palm oil inventory in July. Indian palm oil imports decreased in July, and soybean oil substitution imports increased. Domestic soybean oil trading volume increased, and the expectation of tight soybean supply in the future supported soybean oil [3][5]. - According to Reuters survey, it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in July 2025 will be 2.25 million tons, a 10.8% month - on - month increase; production is expected to be 1.83 million tons, an 8% month - on - month increase; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase [6]. - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 9.01%, with different trends in different regions [6]. - Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports in July 2025 showed a decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Indian palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. Total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons, the highest level since November last year [8]. - The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons, a 1% increase from the previous estimate. The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia in the 2024/25 season is 48.8 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons [8]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 234,300 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.1174 million tons, an increase of 29,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8,600 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3,400 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 661,500 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 239,500 tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 30,880 tons, compared with 49,300 tons in the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 437 tons, compared with 526 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - As of June 30 this year, 5.03 million hectares or 89.6% of Malaysia's oil palm plantation area has obtained the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification [10]. - The Malaysian government plans to increase the allocation for the palm oil replanting project to 1.4 billion ringgit (about $331 million) from 2026 to 2030 to accelerate the national replanting process, especially to support small - scale farmers. In 2024, Malaysia's national replanting rate was only 2%, far below the government's target of 4%. This year, the government has provided 100 million ringgit (about $24 million) in subsidy funds to encourage small - scale farmers to participate in replanting [10]. - The estimated palm oil production in Thailand in the 2024/25 season is 3.52 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.02 - 4.02 million tons. In May 2025, Thailand's palm oil production increased to 520,000 tons, a 23.5% increase from April. The cumulative production in the first five months of 2025 reached 1.52 million tons, a 9.6% increase from the same period in 2024 [11]. - The Nigerian vice - president revealed that the country's president has ordered the planting of 100 million oil palm trees and plans to revitalize the cocoa industry as part of economic diversification and agricultural productivity improvement [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil plantation giant, Sime Darby Plantation Group, expects the price of crude palm oil to stabilize at around 4,000 ringgit per ton (about $946.52) for the rest of this year, supported by Indonesia's biodiesel mandatory blending policy [12]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of the Malaysian palm oil main contract, the US soybean oil main contract, the futures price index trends of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis of soybean oil and palm oil, the price spreads between different oils, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory data of domestic oils [13][14][15]
棕榈油周报：等待MPOB报告落地，棕榈油延续调整-20250811
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-11 03:27