长江期货聚烯烃周报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Plastic: There is an expectation of a rebound in downstream开工, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Polyethylene downstream is still in the traditional off - season, with no obvious boost in terminal demand. Although the overall downstream开工 rate has increased, the continuous restocking strength is insufficient. The market's expectation of anti - involution policies will still support the market. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 2509 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 7200 - 7500 [5][6]. - PP: The pressure on the disk trend is relatively large, and it will fluctuate in the short term. During the off - season of demand, the downstream开工 rate remains stable. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" and the recent takeaway market competition will support downstream demand to some extent. However, there are many new production capacities on the supply side, and the disk pressure is still expected to be large. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 2509 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 6900 - 7200 [7][8]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 8, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week. The average price of LDPE was 9533.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%. The average price of HDPE was 7987.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7483.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The LLDPE South China basis was 185.29 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.11%. The 6 - 9 month spread was 70 yuan/ton (+25), with the basis narrowing and the month spread widening [6]. Fundamental Changes - Cost and Profit: WTI crude oil closed at 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.91 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.20 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1060 yuan/ton (+10). The profit of oil - based PE was - 352 yuan/ton, an increase of 138 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PE was 989 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - Supply: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 84.08%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 66.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.87 tons, a decrease of 1.28 tons from last week [6]. - Demand: The overall operating rate of agricultural film was 13.07%, an increase of 0.44% from last week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 49.30%, an increase of 0.60% from last week. The operating rate of PE pipes was 29.00%, an increase of 0.33% from last week [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 57.57 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [6]. PP Market Changes - On August 8, the closing price of the polypropylene 2509 contract was 7062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7246.67 yuan/ton (-8.33), a month - on - month decrease of 0.11%. The PP basis was 185 yuan/ton (-36), with the basis narrowing. The 5 - 9 month spread was 24 yuan/ton (-2), with the month spread narrowing [8]. Fundamental Changes - Cost and Profit: WTI crude oil closed at 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.91 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.20 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1060 yuan/ton (+10). The profit of oil - based PP was - 343.52 yuan/ton, an increase of 129.54 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PP was 519.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165.41 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - Supply: The operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China this week was 77.31%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.71 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91% [8]. - Demand: The average downstream operating rate this week was 48.90% (+0.50%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 41.10% (-0%), the operating rate of BOPP was 60.80% (+0%), the operating rate of injection molding was 56.73% (+0%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.23% (+0.06%) [8]. - Inventory: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 58.71 tons (+3.95%); the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 5.18% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 8.08% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 2.08% month - on - month [8].