宝城期货资讯早班车-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economy showed better - than - expected performance in H1 2025, with GDP growing 5.3% year - on - year, and new industries maintaining rapid development. It is expected that the pro - growth policies will be further strengthened in H2 [4][5] - The futures market has seen significant growth in H1 2025, with an increase in new and effective customers, and an improvement in the customer structure [5] - The gold price reached a new high, and factors such as "interest - rate cut trading", "Trump 2.0", and central bank gold purchases are expected to support the price [6] - The bond market showed an overall volatile and slightly stronger trend after the implementation of the new bond VAT rule, and the relative value of credit bonds increased [19][26] - The A - share market has different views, with some suggesting a focus on strong industrial trends and avoiding some high - valuation sectors, while others believe it is in a bull - market relay with short - term resistance [30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1% [1] - In June 2025, the growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Five futures exchanges will implement the "Programmed Trading Management Measures" from October 9, 2025, to strengthen supervision [2] - In July 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase month - on - month, and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed [3] - In H1 2025, the number of new and effective futures customers increased, and the customer structure improved [5] - A number of major foreign investment projects have made progress, and new policies to attract foreign investment will be introduced [5] 3.2.2 Metals - The gold futures price reached a new high, and factors such as "interest - rate cut trading" and central bank gold purchases support the price [6] - The inventory of some metals in the London Metal Exchange changed, with zinc inventory hitting a new low and nickel inventory reaching a new high [6][7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's largest copper mine may resume partial underground operations after an accident [8] - In late July, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous period [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase [9] - Speculators reduced their net long positions in crude oil futures [9][10][11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China will implement comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity to prevent large fluctuations [11] - The pig price was low, and the revenue of listed pig enterprises decreased [11] - The FAO food price index reached a new high in July [11] - Some countries and regions adjusted their agricultural product import policies, which may affect prices [11][13] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Key News - In July 2025, CPI and PPI showed different trends, and the National Bureau of Statistics provided explanations [15] - The "8·11 exchange - rate reform" has improved the market - oriented level of the RMB exchange rate [15] - The regulatory authorities will strengthen the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market without large - scale IPO expansion [16] - The issuance scale of new science - innovation bonds reached 880.659 billion yuan in three months [16] - The real - estate market showed signs of recovery, and some regions optimized housing purchase policies [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - After the implementation of the new bond VAT rule, the bond market showed an overall volatile and slightly stronger trend [19] - The yields of some bonds changed, and the prices of some bonds rose or fell [19][20][21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose [23] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The scale of south - bound dim - sum bonds is expected to expand, and the secondary - market liquidity may increase [25] - The convertible bond valuation is at a high level, and the equity market in August has an upward environment [25] - The central bank will be more cautious about policy - rate cuts, and structural policies will be the main focus [25] - The relative value of credit bonds increased after the implementation of the new bond VAT rule [26] - An atypical dumbbell - shaped allocation strategy is recommended for the equity market [26] - The global currency system has hidden risks, and gold may become a substitute for the US - dollar reserve [26] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - Nearly 50 A - share companies proposed mid - term dividends, with a total dividend of over 72 billion yuan [29] - Hong Kong's investment company has invested in over 100 projects, and over 10 companies plan to list in Hong Kong [29] - Public - offering funds increased self - purchases, with a total self - purchase amount of over 5 billion yuan this year [30] - Different views on the A - share market, with some suggesting a focus on strong industrial trends and others seeing short - term resistance [30] - South - bound funds' cumulative net inflow exceeded HK$900 billion, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to have a valuation premium [31]