东海期货研究所晨会观点精萃-20250811

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Precious Metals: The US economic data continues to be weak, and precious metals are oscillating upward. The current focus has shifted from tariffs to economic data, and precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, with the medium - to long - term allocation logic remaining unchanged [2][3]. - Black Metals: The inventory increase of steel has expanded, and the futures and spot prices of steel and iron ore have continued to be weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [4][5][6]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Glass production is expected to decrease, with short - term price expected to oscillate within a range [9]. - Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The prices of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by various factors such as macro policies, inventory, and demand, with expected short - term oscillations [10]. - Energy and Chemicals: The spot market is weak, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil, asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products is complex, with most products expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. - Agricultural Products: Attention should be paid to the guidance of the August USDA and MPOB supply - demand reports. The prices of various agricultural products such as soybeans, oils, and grains are affected by factors like weather, supply - demand, and policies [18]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Market Performance: Last week, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 786.90 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 7279 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Influencing Factors: The news of the US imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss gold triggered a sharp rise in the COMEX premium. The US economic data continued to weaken, with the July ISM non - manufacturing index at 50.1. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 90% [3]. - Outlook: Precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, and the medium - to long - term allocation logic remains unchanged. Next week, focus on the July US CPI data [3]. Black Metals Steel - Market Situation: The futures and spot markets of domestic steel continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. The inflation data in July improved, and market sentiment recovered to some extent [5]. - Fundamentals: Real demand continued to weaken, with the inventory of five major steel products increasing by 230,000 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption continuing to decline. Steel supply was at a high level, with the output of five major steel products increasing by 17,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of rebar increasing by 100,000 tons [5]. - Cost and Outlook: The price of coking coal strengthened, and the cost support for steel remained strong. Steel prices are recommended to be treated with an interval oscillation mindset in the short - term [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and real demand was weak, with the hot metal output expected to further decrease [6]. - Influencing Factors: There were increasing rumors of production restrictions in the northern region [6]. Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of glass remained stable week - on - week. There are expectations of production cuts due to macro anti - involution policies [9]. - Demand: The terminal real estate industry remained weak, but demand improved slightly, with the downstream deep - processing orders at 9.55 days at the end of July, increasing month - on - month [9]. - Profit: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels decreased week - on - week. The glass price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals Copper - Macro Factors: Tariffs have basically been implemented, and the US - China 90 - day tariff truce agreement may be extended. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have increased significantly. The Comex copper inventory is at a multi - year high, and the terminal demand may weaken marginally [10]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of aluminum fell last Friday, affected by the decline in alumina. Alumina production remained high, with increased in - plant inventory and a large accumulation of warehouse receipts [10]. - Fundamentals: The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened recently, with domestic social inventory increasing by 100,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 130,000 tons compared to the low in late June [10]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply and Cost: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts [10]. - Demand: It is in the off - season, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [10][11]. Tin - Supply: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mining end is expected to be more relaxed [11]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new photovoltaic installations in June. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [11]. Carbonate Lithium - Supply: The Fengxiawo Mine has stopped production, which is a short - term positive for supply. The production and inventory pressure are accumulating [12]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [12]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: The production in the north and south regions has increased, with a weekly output of 79,478 tons, an 8.1% week - on - week increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - Market Situation: It is a key anti - involution industry, with expectations remaining. The spot price provides support, and the short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market Trends: The US - Russia peace talks are ongoing, and the market expects the Russia - Ukraine conflict to ease. The spot market is weak, and the demand for crude oil is expected to decrease while supply increases [14]. - Outlook: There is long - term pressure on crude oil prices [14]. Asphalt - Cost and Market: The cost support of asphalt is weak due to the falling crude oil prices. The spot market is average, with low - to - medium trading volumes and limited inventory reduction [14]. - Outlook: Asphalt will continue to maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. PX - Market Situation: Short - term PTA device production has been cut, and PX devices are also operating at a limited capacity. The PXN spread is around 260 US dollars, and the PX outer market is at 831 US dollars. It will oscillate in the short - term [14]. PTA - Market Indicators: The PTA basis has continued to decline slightly, and downstream operating rates have increased slightly. The processing fee is low, and some major devices have cut production [15][16]. - Outlook: Supply and demand are expected to balance in August, and PTA will maintain an interval oscillation [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Inventory and Supply: Port inventory has decreased slightly to 516,000 tons, but the expected import volume will increase, and domestic device operating rates will recover [16]. - Outlook: It may show a situation of slightly increased supply and demand in the short - term and maintain an oscillation [16]. Short - fiber - Market Performance: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the weakening of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has accumulated slightly [16]. - Outlook: It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term [16]. Methanol - Supply - Demand Situation: There are concentrated maintenance in the supply of methanol, and the demand in the inland region is boosted by the restart of olefin plants, while the port is weak due to olefin maintenance and increased imports [16]. - Outlook: The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with obvious regional differentiation, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. PP - Supply - Demand: The cost - profit of PP has improved, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in mid - to late August. Demand is in the off - season, and industrial inventory has increased [17]. - Outlook: The 09 contract price fluctuation may be limited, and the 01 contract is still considered weak [17]. LLDPE - Supply - Demand: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Market Indicators: The net short position of soybean funds in the CBOT market has increased significantly. The US weather is favorable for crop growth, and new soybean sales are cold [18]. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the August USDA supply - demand report. Soybean exports may be adjusted downward, and the price is expected to be under pressure [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Demand: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories have continued to increase, and the spot market is weak. Soybean meal is traded around the cost logic, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil: The spot trading of soybean oil has improved, and there is a supply - tightening expectation in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage [19]. - Palm Oil: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have increased in July, and exports are weak. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the price is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short - term [19]. Corn - Supply: Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, with sufficient supply expected. The spot price is stable in August [19]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: Pig prices rebounded over the weekend. There is reluctance to sell at low prices, and the supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn [20].