宏观通胀系列十一：7月CPI不变，PPI降幅收窄

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In July, the year-on-year CPI remained flat, and the month-on-month decline of PPI narrowed. The CPI showed characteristics such as service consumption offsetting the decline in food prices, lagging energy transmission, and weak recovery of industrial products. The PPI presented different trends in traditional and new industries, with policy support having varying effects. Attention should be paid to risks such as the impact of weak real - estate investment on building materials demand and global trade frictions on high - tech product prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 6 months CPI and PPI Situation - PPI: In July 2025, the year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6% (the same as in June), and the month - on - month decline narrowed to - 0.2% (from - 0.4% in June). The cumulative PPI from January to July decreased by 2.9%. Energy and raw material supply - demand pressure eased marginally, export - dependent industries were under pressure, international input pressure was differentiated, the resilience of high - tech manufacturing weakened, consumer and equipment manufacturing demand was released, and the pressure on consumer goods prices increased [7]. - CPI: In July 2025, the year - on - year CPI was flat (compared to + 0.1% in June), and the month - on - month increase was 0.4% (compared to - 0.1% in June), ending the consecutive decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Food prices dragged down the CPI, energy and industrial product prices were differentiated, and service consumption strongly supported the CPI [21]. Appendix: July 2025 CPI and PPI Data - CPI: In July 2025, the year - on - year CPI was flat, with urban areas remaining the same and rural areas decreasing by 0.3%. Food prices decreased by 1.6%, non - food prices increased by 0.3%, consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. The month - on - month CPI increased by 0.4% [35]. - PPI: In July 2025, the month - on - month decline of the industrial producer price index narrowed. The month - on - month industrial producer output price decreased by 0.2%, and the month - on - month industrial producer purchase price decreased by 0.3%. The year - on - year industrial producer output price decreased by 3.6%, and the year - on - year industrial producer purchase price decreased by 4.5%. From January to July, the average industrial producer output price decreased by 2.9% compared to the previous year, and the industrial producer purchase price decreased by 3.2% [37]. National Bureau of Statistics' Chief Statistician's Interpretation - CPI: The month - on - month increase in CPI was slightly higher than the seasonal level, and the year - on - year core CPI continued to rise. The year - on - year CPI was flat mainly due to low food prices [42]. - PPI: The month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed, and the year - on - year decline was the same as last month. Seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties affected some industries' prices, while the optimization of the domestic market competition order drove the narrowing of price declines in related industries. Some industries' prices showed positive changes due to industrial transformation and upgrading and the release of domestic demand potential [45].