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电解铝期货品种周报-20250811
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-11 04:07

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations. In the short term, the aluminum price is under pressure due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season, but it may turn stronger after a weak start in August. There is a possibility of the price breaking through the 21,000 mark with the support of potential positive factors in late August [5][12]. - For the medium - term, one can consider mid - line long - position layout below 20,000 yuan [5]. - In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Although the price is expected to be relatively strong, a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory [8][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of the aluminum price. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season, the price is under pressure in the short term. However, as August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, combined with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may turn stronger after a weak start in August [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: Consider mid - line long - position layout below 20,000 yuan [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price in August may be weak first and then strong. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The price in late August is still expected to be strong, but a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan [8]. - Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises: Consider moderately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [9]. Overall View - Bauxite Market: The domestic bauxite market is not in surplus. The bauxite price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, while that in the south - western region may rise. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply in August may tighten, but due to the significant increase in previous imports and high port inventories, as well as the resumption of production of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage of bauxite may be limited, and the price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - Alumina Market: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 95.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.73% (85.58% last week), reaching the highest level since 2022 [10]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.45 million tons, the operating capacity is about 44.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 97%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum supply shows a dual - track pattern of "stable domestic growth + overseas supplement". Domestically, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the electrolytic aluminum output in countries such as Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by more than 30% year - on - year [10]. - Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,400 yuan/ton. Since June, the export volume of aluminum products has declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Considering the suspension of Sino - US tariff confrontation, the export resilience will remain in the second half of the year, but the growth rate is expected to slow down compared with the first half [10]. - Demand: - Aluminum Profiles: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. The operating rate and order volume of construction profiles are low, the off - season atmosphere in the automotive profile industry remains, the new orders for photovoltaic profiles are insufficient, and the processing fees are too low, resulting in low order - taking willingness of enterprises. The orders of photovoltaic frame enterprises are relatively saturated. In the short term, it is expected to operate stably [11]. - Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 64.0% this week. The industry generally has low expectations for the consumption boost from terminal peak - season stocking in August, and the inertia of enterprise production cuts is difficult to change. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 68.4%. The orders for air - conditioning foils have decreased by 5 - 10% year - on - year due to the large - scale summer equipment maintenance plan of air - conditioning terminals. With the mixed news of the cancellation of purchase tax incentives for new energy vehicles in 2026, the aluminum foil industry is expected to further shrink, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend [11]. - Aluminum Cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises remained stable at 61.8%. Although the industry is showing signs of emerging from the off - season, the characteristics of the traditional peak season have not fully emerged. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 55.6%, continuing the recovery trend since July. However, under the triple pressures of the unresolved Sino - US tariff issue, high aluminum prices, and negative feedback, the weak and stable pattern of the industry is difficult to break. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.1%. The terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and the off - season atmosphere dominates the market. In the short term, the operating rate of sample enterprises is expected to remain stable, but the industry as a whole will continue to decline [11]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 566,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 32% from the same period last year. Since June, the outbound volume of aluminum ingots has continued to decline and is at a low level in the past two years, but it has stabilized since August. The inventory may decrease in late August due to the potential early arrival of the traditional peak season. The inventory of aluminum rods is 138,200 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and an increase of about 17% from the same period last year. In the short term, the off - season theme of downstream industries remains unchanged. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July after a continuous slight decline since May 2024. Considering the overseas resumption of production and the decline of manufacturing data in Europe and the United States, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - Profit: - Alumina: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,000 yuan/ton (2,800 yuan/ton last week), at a relatively high level [12]. - Market Expectation: Before entering the consumption peak season, downstream enterprises mainly make rigid purchases. Without significant positive news, the spot is expected to trade at a discount, and the futures price will fluctuate at a high level. In late August, attention should be paid to potential positive factors such as policies (steady - growth plans), the peak season ("Golden September and Silver October"), and the Fed's interest rate cuts, with the possibility of breaking through the 21,000 mark [12]. - Personal View: The price is still expected to be strong, but a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan [12]. - Key Concerns: The progress of domestic steady - growth policies and whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arrives early [12]. - Direction: Large - range oscillations [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The bauxite price is rising slightly and is expected to oscillate in the range of 70 - 75 US dollars/ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and the domestic supply is expected to tighten marginally before September, but there may be fluctuations in the short term. The alumina price rose and then fell again this week. With the increase in operating capacity, the alumina market is in surplus, and the previous speculation based on anti - involution has subsided [13]. - The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly after reaching a high point. The holders of goods are trying to support the price, but the supply is loosening. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid purchases, and the market is mainly focused on selling rather than replenishing at high prices. The recycled aluminum market still faces the problem of tight scrap aluminum supply, with obvious cost support, but the weak consumption and high social inventory restrict the price increase space. Attention should be paid to whether the demand expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is fulfilled in mid - to late August [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging. In the second half of the year, the domestic alumina market is in overall surplus, but there are regional structural shortages, and the inventory accumulation pressure is greater than the reduction pressure [17]. - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas is 566,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 32% from the same period last year, mainly due to the off - season demand and high prices, which have slowed down the outbound rhythm. However, the inventory is still at a relatively low level compared with the historical average and is difficult to change in the short term. The inventory of aluminum rods is 138,200 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and an increase of about 17% from the same period last year. In the short term, the off - season theme of downstream industries remains unchanged [17]. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory continued to accumulate, mainly due to weak overseas demand. In addition, since June 20, the LME has implemented a new position limit rule for near - month contracts, which may have forced some hidden inventories to become visible [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. The production arrangement of primary aluminum alloy enterprises is still cautious under the weak and stable pattern. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased slightly, but the operating rate in August may remain at a low level. The operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable and is expected to rise slightly in mid - August. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly, with obvious off - season characteristics. The operating rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly, and that of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable [22]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is relatively neutral but weaker than last month. The market has low expectations for the price increase in the second half of the year but is more optimistic about the first half of 2026 [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,560 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,480 yuan/ton last week [34]. - The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35]. Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position of overseas funds decreased slightly. After 11 consecutive weeks of net long - position increase, both the long and short sides increased their positions slightly, indicating increasing market divergence. The market is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the near future [37]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main force increased slightly and steadily this week, with both the long and short sides increasing their positions slightly. The net long position of funds mainly from financial speculation has been decreasing since August, while the funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises have been continuously reducing their net short positions since mid - July and are now in a balanced state. Based on the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [40].