PTA：缺乏新驱动，PTA维持震荡格局，MEG：供需处于去库周期，MEG下方空间有限

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks new drivers and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to limited changes in domestic installations, a slight warming in the terminal atmosphere, and a lack of significant contradictions between supply and demand [1][5]. - MEG is in a de - stocking cycle, with limited downside space. The supply - demand structure is relatively optimistic, and it is expected to undergo narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Market Review: OPEC+ production increase brought bearish pressure, geopolitical tensions eased, and the global economy remained weak, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to cost reduction and poor terminal support. As of August 8, the Asian PX closing price was $831.67 per ton CFR China, down $14 per ton from August 1 [17]. - PX Device Status: There were no device changes during the week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 82.35%, unchanged from the previous week; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 71.95%, a decrease of 0.03% [20]. - Supply - Demand and Price Difference: As of August 8, the PX - naphtha price difference was $261.2 per ton, up $19.38 per ton from August 1. The downstream market was in the off - season, and the terminal market support was poor, but with the commissioning of new PTA devices, there was an expected increase in demand, resulting in narrow - range fluctuations in the PX - naphtha price difference [23]. 3.2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: This week, some installations in East China were shut down for maintenance or reduced production due to efficiency issues, leading to a significant reduction in overall supply. The terminal was in the traditional off - season, and demand changes were minimal. The supply - demand balance sheet shifted to de - stocking. However, due to the impact of OPEC production increase on crude oil prices, the PTA price center oscillated downward. As of August 8, the PTA spot price was 4,670 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 17 [26]. - Device Utilization: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA dropped to 75.92%, a decrease of 3.75% compared to the previous week. Multiple installations in East China were shut down or under maintenance, and some enterprises reduced production due to efficiency issues, resulting in a significant reduction in domestic production this period. In August, with the mass production of Hailun Petrochemical and maintenance plans of Tongkun, Yisheng, and Hengli, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA devices may drop to around 74% [29]. - Processing Fees: The processing fees of PTA decreased significantly this week due to increased long - term supply pressure, active sales by major producers, and tight supply of raw material PX. With an expected increase in supply and average demand, the supply - demand balance sheet shows narrow - range de - stocking. However, due to efficiency issues, some enterprises reduced production. PTA is expected to rebound at a low valuation, and the processing fees may be slightly repaired [30]. - Supply - Demand Balance in August: In August, with the mass production of new PTA devices and multiple planned maintenance installations, and considering the potential reduction in polyester load due to continuous losses, the supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - range balance [33]. 3.3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - Price Movement: At the beginning of the week, influenced by crude oil and macro factors, the price of ethylene glycol declined. However, the de - stocking of supply and demand provided positive support, limiting the market decline. When the price dropped to around 4,450 yuan, it stabilized and rebounded. As of August 8, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4,456 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,480 yuan per ton [39]. - Device Utilization: The overall capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China was 61.42%, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 58.28%, a decrease of 0.39%, and the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 66.47%, an increase of 2.59%. In August, for domestic production, some existing devices will restart and undergo maintenance simultaneously, and the restart of a major factory in Jiangsu is postponed, resulting in a slight increase in overall production [42]. - Port Inventory: As of August 7, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 48.57 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons compared to August 4 and an increase of 5.85 tons compared to July 31. As of August 13, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 10.17 tons, including 3.57 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5.9 tons in Taicang, and 0.7 tons in Jiangyin [45]. - Processing Profits: The supply - demand de - stocking logic still exists. After a decline this week, ethylene glycol rebounded. The prices of the raw material market fluctuated, resulting in both increases and decreases in the sample profits of each ethylene glycol process. As of August 8, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $98.67 per ton, a decrease of $14.29 per ton compared to the previous week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 21.33 yuan per ton, a decrease of 93.53 yuan compared to the previous week [48]. 3.4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Polyester Capacity Utilization: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 86.21%, a 0.39% increase compared to the previous week. After the commissioning of Youshun's new device, the load gradually increased, and Huaya's device restarted after a short - term shutdown, resulting in a slight increase in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will increase slightly next week [51]. - Terminal Impact on Polyester: In July, polyester factories were affected by terminal restrictions and poor profit levels, resulting in a decline in the polyester operating rate, but the decline was limited. In August, with both maintenance and restart plans and new device commissioning, but considering the poor demand outlook, it is expected that the monthly polyester production will decline slightly [52]. - Differentiation in Polyester Product Capacity Utilization: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 90.66%, a 0.85% decrease compared to the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.49%, a 1.81% increase compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.36%, a 1.85% increase compared to the previous week [57]. - Polyester Product Inventory: Due to pre - replenishment, the factory sales data was average this week, and the finished product inventory increased slightly [58]. - Polyester Product Cash Flow: The polymerization cost decreased slightly. Polyester products were mostly in a wait - and - see state this week, with limited downward space and partial cash - flow repair [62]. - Textile Industry Situation: As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, a 0.24% increase compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 6.84 days, a decrease of 0.49 days compared to the previous week. In August, the inquiry atmosphere for domestic autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but due to high inventory in fabric production factories and sufficient supplies from middlemen, there was no significant improvement in domestic and foreign orders, and factories had little intention to increase production [67]. 3.5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - Cost End: OPEC+ production increase brought bearish pressure, geopolitical tensions eased, and the global economy remained weak, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to cost reduction and poor terminal support [68]. - Supply End: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA dropped to 75.92%, a 3.75% decrease compared to the previous week, and domestic production decreased significantly. The total capacity utilization rate of domestic ethylene glycol was 61.42%, a 0.75% increase compared to the previous week [69]. - Demand End: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 86.21%, a 0.39% increase compared to the previous week. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, a 0.24% increase compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 6.84 days, a decrease of 0.49 days compared to the previous week. The inquiry atmosphere for domestic autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but there was no significant improvement in orders, and factories had little intention to increase production [69]. - Inventory: PTA was in a de - stocking state this week. As of August 7, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 48.57 tons, an increase compared to the previous period [69].