海外市场周观察：市场降息预期进一步升温

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that market expectations for interest rate cuts have intensified, with the probability of a rate cut in September reaching 88.9% and a total of three cuts anticipated within the year [1][8][10] - Recent economic data has shown signs of weakening, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July at 50.1, below previous values and forecasts, and initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding expectations [2][9][10] - The report highlights that the Nasdaq Composite Index reached a historical high, reflecting a positive trend in major equity markets, particularly in the materials sector, which saw significant gains [1][38][45] Group 2 - In the asset price section, major global asset classes exhibited mixed performance, with COMEX silver showing the highest increase at +4.43%, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced the largest decline at -5.11% [33][52] - The report notes that the U.S. equity market, particularly the materials sector, has shown strong performance, with the materials industry in the U.S. rising by 5.01% [38][45] - The foreign exchange market saw the Japanese yen appreciating by 1.54% against the RMB, while the ruble depreciated by 1.79% [46][48] Group 3 - The report provides updates on significant economic data, including the Eurozone consumer confidence index continuing to rise, and the UK manufacturing PMI showing an increase [63][71] - Japan's unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating stability in the labor market [74][76] - The report tracks important data releases for the upcoming week, including U.S. CPI data and other key economic indicators [78]