Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the coal mine over - production inspection intensified again, and some coal mines in Shanxi received notices to organize production according to the 276 - working - day plan. The sentiment of going long on coking coal remained strong, driving up the price of coking coal and coke. The downstream procurement rhythm of coking coal and coke slowed down, and speculative demand weakened. However, the supply - side disturbances in coal mines may last until around the National Day, so coking coal is still prone to rise and hard to fall. After a short - term rapid increase, the upward momentum is expected to weaken. Coke has few contradictions and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend supported by coking coal costs. The strategy is to exit short positions in coking coal and focus on the 9 - 1 reverse spread [3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Coke Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - The futures market rallied again last week, and it is prone to rise in the short term. The fifth round of spot price increases was implemented, and the sixth round has started. The steam freight rate remained stable. For example, the coke 01 contract rose 4.55% to 1734. The prices of various types of coke in different regions and ports all increased to varying degrees, such as the Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price rising from 1180 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton [6][8][9]. 1.2 Supply - Coke enterprise profitability improved slightly, and the supply of independent coke enterprises increased slightly. As of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coke enterprise full - sample was 74.03%, a 0.34 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 65.1 tons, a 0.29 - ton increase from the previous week. However, the coking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 86.3%, and the daily coke output decreased by 0.17 tons to 46.8 tons [27][33]. 1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong rigid demand support. Speculative goods increased, export profits declined, and the daily trading volume of building material spot improved slightly. As of August 8, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.75%, a 0.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, a 0.15 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the daily pig iron output was 240.32 tons, a 0.39 - ton decrease from the previous week; and the steel mill profitability rate was 68.4%, a 3.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [36]. 1.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased slightly, while steel mills' and coking plants' inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined. As of August 8, the total coke inventory decreased by 8.25 tons to 907.16 tons, with port inventory increasing by 3.05 tons to 218.15 tons, independent coke enterprise full - sample inventory decreasing by 3.89 tons to 69.73 tons, and 247 sample steel mill inventory decreasing by 7.41 tons to 619.28 tons [42][45]. 1.5 Profit - Coke enterprise profitability improved slightly, but the coke futures market profit continued to decline. The national 30 independent coke enterprise sample had a ton - coke profit of - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week. The coke 01 futures market profit decreased by 64.85 yuan/ton to 138.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [53]. 1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened oscillatingly. The coke 01 basis decreased by 56.2 to - 206.42 compared to the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 39 to - 83 compared to the previous week [57]. 2. Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - The futures market rallied again last week, and it is prone to rise in the short term. The spot price increase slowed down. For example, the coking coal 01 contract rose 10.04% to 1227. The prices of various types of coking coal in different regions and origins showed different trends, such as the price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal dropping from 1500 yuan/ton to 1480 yuan/ton [60][62][63]. 2.2 Supply - The supply in the production area was still restricted, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly, the number of customs - cleared vehicles of Mongolian coal rebounded, and the import of coking coal from January to June decreased year - on - year. As of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.22%, a 1.19 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the daily clean coal output was 26.04 tons, a 0.59 - ton increase from the previous week. In 2025, from January to June, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 52.9 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 7.26% [71][74]. 2.3 Inventory - The downstream replenishment rhythm slowed down, the coal mine inventory reduction slowed down, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of August 8, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 5.21 tons to 26.0769 million tons, with mine enterprise coking coal inventory decreasing by 2.6 tons to 245.66 tons, port inventory decreasing by 4.77 tons to 277.34 tons, coal washing plant clean coal inventory increasing by 2.1 tons to 288.11 tons, independent coke enterprise full - sample inventory decreasing by 4.81 tons to 9.8792 million tons, and 247 sample steel mill inventory increasing by 4.87 tons to 8.866 million tons [77][80]. 2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 01 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread both weakened. The coking coal 01 basis decreased by 134.5 to - 232 compared to the previous week. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50 to - 157.5 compared to the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 39 to - 11.5 compared to the previous week [92][93].
煤焦周度报告20250811：煤矿供应端扰动持续，焦煤依旧易涨难跌-20250811
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-11 04:35