纸浆：市场缺乏明确指引，浆价以区间震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp market lacks clear guidance, and pulp prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the ongoing deadlock in the supply - demand fundamentals, high port inventories, abundant spot market supplies, no substantial improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates, the price of the pulp 2511 contract is predicted to fluctuate between 5110 - 5320 this week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices declined. Among them, broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai decreased by 0.97%, 1.22%, and 1.22% respectively. Chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, natural pulp declined, and sugarcane pulp increased. The chemical mechanical pulp Kun He in Shandong was quoted at 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the natural pulp Jin Xing was quoted at 4900 yuan/ton, down 2.0%; the sugarcane pulp in South China was quoted at 4000 yuan/ton, up 2.56% [11][13]. - Pulp Futures Review: The pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated horizontally within a 100 - point range last week, closing at 5192 yuan/ton on the weekly line, with no change from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 122.0 million lots, a decrease of 49.9 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 29.3 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 million lots [14]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: The contango of the futures - spot basis widened slightly. The basis contango between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 688 yuan/ton, 24 yuan/ton wider than the previous week [18]. - Log Futures Review: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter on the weekly line, up 1.1% from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 12.2 million lots, a decrease of 0.879 million lots, and the weighted open interest was 3.15 million lots, an increase of 0.43 million lots [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production: Last week's pulp production was 47.9 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons (0.21%) compared to the previous week. It is expected that the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp will be about 20.7 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.5 tons [21]. - Weekly Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.3%, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 86.7%, a decrease of 1.2% [26]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In July 2025, domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a 2.51% increase compared to the previous month [27]. - Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical and Broad - leaf Pulp: In July 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 89.6 tons, a 4.8% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, a decrease of 0.8%. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 91.7 tons, a 2.92% increase compared to the previous month, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, an increase of 2.4% [31]. - Monthly Production Margin of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp: In July 2025, the production margin of broad - leaf pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a 3.87% increase compared to the previous month. The production margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - Pulp Import Volume: In June 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.0306 million tons, a 0.48% increase compared to the previous month and a 16.12% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 18.5777 million tons, a 4.2% increase compared to the same period last year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Tissue Paper Market: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 27.86 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons (0.14%) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 63.1%, a decrease of 0.1% [41]. - Downstream Cultural Paper Market: Last week, copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (1.28%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.6%, a decrease of 1.3%. Offset paper production was 21 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (6.06%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 57.0%, an increase of 1.6% [44]. - Downstream Packaging Paper Market: Last week, white cardboard production was 30.7 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (3.02%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.74%, a decrease of 1.94%. Corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a decrease of 0.91 tons (1.93%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.9%, a decrease of 1.22%. Boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons (1.51%) compared to the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.68%, an increase of 1.32% [47][50]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: Tissue paper prices remained stable, while cultural paper prices declined. Whiteboard paper and white cardboard prices were basically stable. Corrugated paper prices increased slightly, and boxboard paper prices remained stable [51][53][56]. - Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, an increase of 2.33% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, an increase of 1.29% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, an increase of 1.25% compared to the previous month [58][60]. - Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption: In July 2025, the predicted domestic demand was 3.23 million tons, the predicted consumption was 3.215 million tons, and the actual pulp consumption was 3.321 million tons, an increase of 3.94% compared to the previous month and 3.3% compared to the same period last year [64]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (2.71%) compared to the previous week. Among them, Qingdao Port's inventory is 1.385 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.42%); Changshu Port's inventory is 485,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (5.64%); Tianjin Port's inventory is 60,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (3.23%) [67][70]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 244,200 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.69%) compared to the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 225,000 tons, an increase of 1,679 tons (0.75%) [71].