Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Crude Oil: Short - term, the market focuses on the cease - fire negotiation between the US and Russia on the Russia - Ukraine issue and India's attitude towards Russian oil sanctions. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified, and the price is bearish. Brent should pay attention to the support around $65.5 per barrel [1][2] - Asphalt: It maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and more resistant to decline than crude oil. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3450 - 3550 [3][5] - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is rising and the demand has no specific driver. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] - PX: Supply is recovering in August, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [7][9] - PTA: Supply load has rebounded, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [12][13] - Short Fiber: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [15][16] - PR (Bottle Chip): The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [18][19] - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be relatively balanced, and the price has strong support. Styrene's supply is expected to increase, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price of pure benzene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [19][21] - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and short positions should be held. Caustic soda's price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and short positions should be closed at low prices [25][26] - Plastic and PP: The overall supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28] - Methanol: Supply is increasing, and the strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [29][30] - Urea: Supply is abundant, and demand is declining. The strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [31] - Soda Ash: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [33][34] - Glass: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][37] - Log: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited. The market is generally stable and slightly strong, but long - term demand needs to be observed [38][40] - Offset Printing Paper: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general. The price is generally stable [40][42] - Pulp: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend. The strategy is to hold short positions in the main 11 - contract [42][44] - Butadiene Rubber: The strategy is to try to go long in the main 09 - contract [45][47] - Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber: For the RU main 01 - contract, wait and see; for the NR main 10 - contract, try to go long. Consider arbitrage opportunities in RU2511 - NR2511 [47][49] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2509 was stable at $63.88 per barrel, Brent2510 rose $0.16 to $66.59 per barrel, and SC2510 fell to 493 yuan per barrel. The Brent main - secondary spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - Related News: The US and Russia may negotiate to end the Ukraine war, and India has put on hold the plan to purchase US weapons and is open to reducing Russian oil imports [1] - Logic Analysis: Short - term feed demand is okay, and the market focuses on geopolitical events. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified [2] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: gasoline cracking is weak, diesel cracking is strong; Options: wait and see [2] Asphalt - Market Review: BU2510 closed at 3484 points (+0.17%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3394 points (+0.09%) at night [3] - Related News: Shandong's mainstream transaction price fell by 5 yuan per ton, and the supply - demand pattern was loose [3] - Logic Analysis: July's actual output was higher than expected, and the demand in the south and north was weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: wait and see [5] Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2776 (-0.82%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3464 (-0.89%) at night [5] - Related News: Iraq seized an oil tanker, and the domestic low - sulfur production in July decreased [5][6] - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur supply pressure is slightly reduced, and low - sulfur supply is rising [7] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see [7] PX - Market Review: PX2509 closed at 6726 (-0.33%) on Friday and 6748 (+0.33%) at night [7] - Related News: China's PX and PTA operating rates increased [8] - Logic Analysis: Supply is recovering, and demand lacks upward drive [9] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [9] PTA - Market Review: TA509 closed at 4684 (-0.09%) on Friday and 4692 (+0.17%) at night [9] - Related News: China's PTA and polyester operating rates increased [9] - Logic Analysis: Supply load has rebounded, and demand lacks upward drive [10] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [12] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 closed at 4384 (-0.27%) on Friday and 4391 (+0.16%) at night [12] - Related News: China's ethylene glycol operating rate increased [12] - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [13] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [14] Short Fiber - Market Review: PF2510 closed at 6382 (-0.16%) on Friday and 6398 (+0.25%) at night [15] - Related News: China's short - fiber operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [16] - Logic Analysis: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased [16] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [17] PR (Bottle Chip) - Market Review: PR2510 closed at 5898 (-0.34%) on Friday and 5924 (+0.44%) at night [16][18] - Related News: The bottle - chip operating rate was flat, and the export price was lowered [18] - Logic Analysis: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized, and the price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [19] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 closed at 6204 (-0.70%) on Friday and 6213 (+0.15%) at night. EB2509 closed at 7235 (-0.84%) on Friday and 7230 (-0.07%) at night [19] - Related News: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene and their downstream products changed [21] - Logic Analysis: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and styrene's supply is expected to increase [21] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20][22] PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices were weakly volatile, and caustic soda spot prices were stable [22][23] - Related News: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling changed [23][24] - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and caustic soda's price is expected to be volatile [25][26] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: PVC hold short positions, caustic soda close short positions at low prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [27] Plastic and PP - Market Review: The prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions changed [27] - Related News: The inventory of major producers increased [28] - Logic Analysis: New capacity is being put into production, and demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [28] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [28][29] Methanol - Market Review: The futures closed at 2384 (-0.17%) at night [29] - Related News: International methanol production increased [29] - Logic Analysis: International supply is recovering, and domestic supply is abundant. The strategy is to short at high prices [30] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell call options [30][31] Urea - Market Review: The futures closed at 1728 (-0.52%) [31] - Related News: Northeast urea arrivals decreased [31] - Logic Analysis: Supply is abundant, demand is declining, and the strategy is to short at high prices [31] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell put options on dips [31][32] Soda Ash - Market Review: The futures closed at 1249 (-1.4%) on Friday and 1242 (-0.6%) at night [33] - Related News: Domestic soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [33][34] - Logic Analysis: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [34][35] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [35] Glass - Market Review: The futures closed at 1063 (-1.21%) on Friday and 1064 (+0.09%) at night [35] - Related News: Glass inventory increased, and production was stable [35][36] - Logic Analysis: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [36][37] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [38] Log - Market Review: The 9 - contract price fell to 830.5 yuan per cubic meter [39] - Related News: Log prices were stable, and imports decreased [38] - Logic Analysis: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited [39][40] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: wait and see, aggressive investors can short near the previous high; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [40] Offset Printing Paper - Market Review: The double - offset paper market was generally stable [40] - Related News: Some production lines were shut down for maintenance, and Suzano cut production [40][42] - Logic Analysis: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general [42] - Trading Strategy: Not provided Pulp - Market Review: The SP main 11 - contract rose 0.23% [42] - Related News: Jiulong Paper raised prices, and downstream packaging enterprises responded [43][44] - Logic Analysis: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend [44] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: hold short positions in the main 11 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see [45] Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: The BR main 09 - contract rose 1.26% [45] - Related News: China's rubber imports increased [46][47] - Logic Analysis: Inventory changes vary [47] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: try to go long in the main 09 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [47] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - Market Review: The RU main 01 - contract rose 0.77%, and the NR main 10 - contract rose 0.06% [47][48] - Related News: China's rubber imports increased [49] - Logic Analysis: Inventory changes vary [49] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: RU main 01 - contract wait and see, NR main 10 - contract try to go long; Arbitrage: consider RU2511 - NR2511; Options: wait and see [49]
银河期货原油期货早报-20250811
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-11 05:04