国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Views - The report presents investment analyses and trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, on August 11, 2025 [2][4]. - Each commodity has its own unique market situation, influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic news, and industry - specific events [6][11][14]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Tariff misinformation affected price spreads. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex gold 2510 decreased by 0.70% to 3458.20, and the price of London gold spot decreased by 0.08% to 3397.20 [2][6][9]. - Silver: There was a slight rebound. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2510 decreased by 0.05% to 38.510, and the price of London silver spot increased by 0.08% to 38.308 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - Copper: The weak US dollar supported the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 0.04% to 78,490, and the price of the London copper 3M electronic disk increased by 1.01% to 9,768 [2][11][13]. - Zinc: It showed a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.29% to 22515, and the price of the London zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66% to 2834 [2][14][15]. - Lead: Decreased inventory supported the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 0.18% to 16845, and the price of the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.17% to 2003.5 [2][17]. - Tin: It oscillated within a range. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 0.06% to 267,780, and the price of the London tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.68% to 33,605 [2][20][22]. - Aluminum: Volatility dropped to a historical low. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20750, and the price of the London aluminum 3M was 2622 [2][23][25]. - Nickel: The support logic from the ore end weakened, and the smelting - end logic limited price elasticity. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180 [2][26][30]. - Stainless Steel: The multi - empty game intensified, and the steel price oscillated. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The shutdown of a large - scale mine in Jiangxi was confirmed, and the price was running strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the 2509 contract was 76,640 [2][32][36]. - Iron Ore: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the 12509 contract decreased by 0.38% to 790.0 [2][38][39]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both showed wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0. The price of the RB2510 rebar contract decreased by 0.71% to 3,213, and the price of the HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract decreased by 0.55% to 3,428 [2][40][42]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Both showed wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0. The price of the silicon iron 2509 contract was 5772, and the price of the manganese silicon 2509 contract was 6046 [2][44][46]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both showed strong - side oscillations. The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0. The price of the JM2509 coking coal contract decreased by 1.6% to 1069.5, and the price of the J2509 coke contract decreased by 0.8% to 1653.5 [2][47][49]. - Log: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.2% to 830.5 [2][50][53]. - Para - Xylene: Supply - demand pressure increased, and the trend was weak. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the PX main contract decreased by 0.44% to 6726 [2][54][57]. - PTA: The processing fee was at a low level, and attention was paid to unplanned production cuts. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the PTA main contract decreased by 0.09% to 4684 [2][54][58]. - MEG: Go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX. The trend strength is 0. The price of the MEG main contract decreased by 0.27% to 4384 [2][54][59]. - Rubber: It oscillated strongly. The trend strength is 1. The daily - closing price of the rubber main contract increased by 25 to 15,550 [2][60][61]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Supply and demand in the producing areas were both strong, and attention was paid to the MPOB report. [2][4][60] - Soybean Oil: The driving force from US soybeans was insufficient, and attention was paid to subsequent domestic purchases. [2][4][60] - Soybean Meal: After the overnight decline of US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal might follow and adjust with oscillations. [2][4][62] - Soybean No.1: The price on the disk oscillated weakly. [2][4][62] - Corn: The price on the disk was under pressure. [2][4][64] - Sugar: The valuation had a safety margin. [2][4][66] - Cotton: It continued to oscillate. [2][4][67] - Egg: There was a rebound sentiment in the spot market. [2][4][69] - Live Pig: The spot market was weak, and the reverse - arbitrage strategy was maintained. [2][4][70] - Peanut: Attention was paid to the weather in the producing areas. [2][4][71]