Report Investment Ratings - Beans and Meal: Large - range oscillation [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Large - range oscillation [1] - Palm Oil: Short - term consolidation [1] - Cotton: Cautiously bullish [1] - Jujube: Cautiously bullish [1] - Live Pigs: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - Beans and Meal: Amid the interplay of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it shows a large - range oscillation. This week, there was inventory reduction, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased month - on - month, which is bullish. However, there is a risk of an upward adjustment in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious about chasing long positions. Focus on the next USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Under the influence of multiple long and short factors, it presents a large - range market. Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a yield reduction in Canada. The import of rapeseed from August to October is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. But the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit exerts downward pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather, yield estimates, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian developments [1][7]. - Palm Oil: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption outlook of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. However, there may be inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July, which could suppress short - term prices. Consider the support of biodiesel policies and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Also, pay attention to domestic palm oil purchases in the past three months and beware of the risk of short - term squeeze [1][10]. - Cotton: The moisture condition in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. The ICE market is expected to move in a narrow range. In China, the guaranteed output of new cotton has increased, and the high - temperature risk has been lifted, but the risk of rainy days in the future needs attention. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and there is no quota issuance at the import end, providing short - term support. The downstream may gradually enter the stocking period, and there is an expected marginal improvement in the spinning mill's operating rate and future orders. Before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to establish long positions on dips [1][14]. - Jujube: There are still significant differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and the possibility of an over - expected reduction is still in doubt, with speculation risks remaining. High - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final output is determined. It is recommended to be cautious and try long positions [1][17]. - Live Pigs: The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of short - term sales rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs. However, the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still drives some second - fattening speculation, so the near - term contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises may help the far - term contracts rise. The overall situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". Continue to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips for far - term contracts [1][20]. Summary by Directory Beans and Meal - Inventory Data: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [3]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,015.43 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory Data: As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons [7]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, up 1.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,725.26 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [5]. Palm Oil - Inventory Data: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3,400 tons [9]. - Price Data: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,108 yuan/ton, up 1.26% [8]. Cotton - Inventory Data: The cotton commercial inventory dropped to 2.0067 million tons, 210,000 tons lower than the same period. The inventory depletion has not significantly slowed down [13]. - Price Data: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 decreased by 0.22% to 13,640 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.10% to 15,193 yuan/ton [11][12]. Jujube - Inventory Data: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and 4,379 tons higher than the same period [16]. - Price Data: The main jujube contract CJ2601 increased by 3.59% to 11,540 yuan/ton [16]. Live Pigs - Inventory and Output Data: In August, the planned output of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 37.6332 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and the output was 10.9168 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18][19]. - Price Data: The main live - pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.96% to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [18][19].
农产品板块日报-20250811
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-11 04:56