PP：短期追空需谨慎，趋势仍有压力

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current trend of the PP market remains weak, but due to the high uncertainty of the cost - end and policy directions, short - term short - selling at low levels requires caution [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2509 yesterday was 7062, with a daily decline of 0.17%. The trading volume was 143,578 and the open interest decreased by 16,581. The 09 - contract basis was - 62 (compared to - 75 the previous day), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 29 (compared to - 31 the previous day) [1] - Spot Price: The spot price of PP in North China was 6900 - 7050 yuan/ton (compared to 6920 - 7050 yuan/ton the previous day), in East China was 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), and in South China was 6950 - 7140 yuan/ton (compared to 6950 - 7130 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market price was narrowly adjusted. The weak oscillation of PP futures had little boost to the spot market. Most factory prices of production enterprises remained stable. Due to cost considerations, the quotations of traders changed little. Near the weekend, downstream buyers were mostly cautious and their inquiry enthusiasm was low, resulting in low trading volume [2] Market Condition Analysis - The cost side of PP has been continuously weak recently, and there are no obvious highlights on the demand side. The market terminal is limited by over - capacity and faces great foreign trade uncertainties in demand, leading to a weakening of export products and poor domestic downstream demand. The supply pressure has further increased with the profit repair from the collapse of the cost side and the implementation of new production capacity expansion. However, there is still high uncertainty in the cost side, and policies are against deflation and involution, so caution is needed at the annual low, especially when the market is oscillating due to the weakening of the monthly spread recently [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]