中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数下跌，能化板块表现弱势-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro Outlook: Overseas markets are in a risk - on mode despite a weak US economic fundamentals and escalating tariff threats. The effectiveness of the August tariff and the upcoming US CPI data along with Fed personnel changes will impact market sentiment. China's exports in July were strong but face risks of decline. For asset allocation, a defensive stance is recommended, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - Asset Allocation: Domestically, reduce allocation to equities and maintain allocation to commodities (emphasizing infrastructure and export - related sectors) and gold. Overseas, reduce allocation to US stocks and maintain allocation to US bonds. Slightly increase allocation to RMB funds and reduce allocation to US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas Macro: The overseas market is in a risk - on state, but the August tariff implementation and upcoming US CPI data, along with Fed personnel changes, will test market sentiment. Trump's nomination of a "trusted person" as a temporary director has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, and the expected difference in US CPI data will affect market risk appetite [7]. - Domestic Macro: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly due to strong non - US market demand offsetting the decline in exports to the US. However, this may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - Asset Views: Domestically, reduce allocation to equities, maintain allocation to commodities and gold. Overseas, reduce allocation to US stocks, maintain allocation to US bonds, slightly increase allocation to RMB funds, and reduce allocation to US dollar money - market funds. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: After event resolution, the crowding of funds is released, but there is a lack of incremental funds [8]. - Stock Index Options: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure, and attention is paid to the upward movement of volatility [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting, and attention is paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are oscillating and strengthening, and attention is paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, as well as tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the off - season characteristics persist. Attention is paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - Iron Ore: Molten iron production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Attention is paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [8]. - Coke: There is a renewed willingness to raise prices, and the market is oscillating. Attention is paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: Supply disruptions continue, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Attention is paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - Silicon Iron: The bullish sentiment is digested, and the market trend is weak. Attention is paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - Manganese Silicon: Market sentiment cools, and futures prices are oscillating weakly. Attention is paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - Glass: Speculation in small - sized glass in Shahe has led to a slight improvement in production and sales. Attention is paid to spot production and sales [8]. - Soda Ash: Production continues to increase, and the market is oscillating. Attention is paid to soda ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The risk of overseas recession has increased, and copper prices are under pressure. Attention is paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [8]. - Alumina: Warehouse receipts have increased again, and alumina prices are oscillating under pressure. Attention is paid to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - Aluminum: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices continue to rise. Attention is paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - Zinc: The prices of black series have rebounded again, and zinc prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to risks of macro - direction change and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - Lead: Supply disruptions in recycled lead have led to a slight rebound in lead prices. Attention is paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventories are high, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Attention is paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and less - than - expected supply release [8]. - Stainless Steel: Nickel - iron prices continue to rise, and stainless steel futures are oscillating upwards. Attention is paid to Indonesian policies and unexpected increases in demand [8]. - Tin: The ore supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to the expected复产 in Wau and changes in demand improvement expectations [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention is paid to the risk of Russian oil. OPEC + production policy and Middle - East geopolitical situation are the focus [10]. - LPG: Supply pressure continues, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. Attention is paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and futures prices are moving in the direction of least resistance. Attention is paid to unexpected demand [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The contradiction between strong cracking and weak premium persists. Attention is paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Futures prices follow crude oil and oscillate weakly. Attention is paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - Methanol: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, methanol is oscillating. Attention is paid to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - Urea: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven is less than expected. Attention is paid to export policy trends and elimination of production capacity [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure increases. Attention is paid to frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals [10]. - PX: Cost support is insufficient, confidence is under pressure, and its fundamental driving force is limited. Attention is paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - changes, and unexpected PTA device maintenance [10]. - PTA: Scheduled maintenance cannot boost processing fees, and prices are still suppressed by costs. Attention is paid to wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and unexpected polyester production reduction [10]. - Short - Fiber: Downstream demand has slightly improved, and attention is paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. Attention is paid to the purchasing rhythm and production start - up of downstream yarn mills [10]. - Bottle Chips: Overall demand is sluggish, and the repair height of processing fees is limited. Attention is paid to unexpected production increase of bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [10]. - Propylene: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - PP: Fundamental support is limited, and PP oscillates weakly. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [10]. - Plastic: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating, and plastic oscillates weakly. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [10]. - Styrene: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is paid to the implementation of policy details. Attention is paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - PVC: There is cost support, and the futures market oscillates. Attention is paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: Spot prices have stabilized, and caustic soda oscillates temporarily. Attention is paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [10]. - Oils and Fats: It oscillated and adjusted yesterday, waiting for further information guidance. Attention is paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: There is concern about the supply shortage in the fourth quarter. Attention is paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: The number of incoming vehicles has returned to a low level, and futures have stabilized and rebounded. Attention is paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - Pigs: Spot prices are still weak, and expectations support the futures market. Attention is paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Rubber: Market sentiment is okay, and rubber prices are rising slowly. Attention is paid to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: It oscillates within a range. Attention is paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil [10]. - Pulp: Futures are running stably, and attention is paid to low - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts. Attention is paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar quotes [10]. - Cotton: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention is paid to marginal changes in demand. Attention is paid to demand and inventory [10]. - Sugar: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Attention is paid to imports [10]. - Logs: It oscillates within a narrow range. Attention is paid to shipping volume and dispatch volume [10].