集运日报：中东局势或将恶化，盘面较强震荡近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. - Given the potential deterioration of the Middle - East situation and the suspension of the detour situation, along with Maersk's profit increase, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the market is volatile, and risk control is necessary [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Market Conditions - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0% [1]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on August 8: the composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11%; the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37%; the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on August 8: the published price was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points; the European line price was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39%; the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on August 8: the composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6%; the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5%; the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% [1]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to try long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially stop losses. For the EC2512 contract, a light - short position was recommended and profit - taking is advised [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Market Trading Data - On August 8, the main contract 2510 closed at 1436.0, down 1.34%, with a trading volume of 5.64 million lots and an open interest of 5.66 million lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [3]. Geopolitical Events - Trump's administration has imposed additional tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market has a small price increase to test the market [3]. - The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the next - stage military operation will target two areas still under Hamas control, and about 70% - 75% of Gaza has been controlled by the Israeli army [3][4]. - The Israeli government's security cabinet passed the "five principles to end the war", including disarming Hamas and other contents [4].