黑色：维持震荡格局，区间交易为主

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the black industry is to maintain a volatile pattern, with trading mainly within a range [1]. - For rebar, the investment strategy is short - term trading [4][6]. - For coking coal and coke (double - coking), the strategy is neutral and wait - and - see [28]. - For iron ore, the investment strategy is to expect a volatile and upward - trending market [70]. Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern. Although the raw material prices of coking coal and coke have risen, they have not driven up steel prices. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, but the inventory accumulation speed has slightly accelerated. The static valuation of rebar futures is neutral, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and industrial - end implementation [6]. - The coking coal market has supply - side disturbances and cautious demand - side sentiment, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The coke market has a game between steel and coking enterprises, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the marginal improvement space is limited [31]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and upward - trending. Although there are expectations of a decline in molten iron demand, considering potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in molten iron will not be significant, which is beneficial for iron ore [71]. Summary by Directory Rebar Main Points - Market Situation: Last week, the prices of coking coal futures rose significantly, but rebar prices fluctuated narrowly. The latest rebar apparent demand increased by 7.38 tons week - on - week, production increased by 10.12 tons, and inventory increased by 10.39 tons. The supply - demand contradiction in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - demand relationship remains relatively balanced, but the inventory accumulation speed has slightly accelerated [6]. - Valuation: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price was lower than the EAF flat - rate electricity cost and higher than the EAF off - peak electricity cost, with a neutral static valuation [24]. - Driving Factors: On the macro - level, the overly optimistic expectations have cooled down, and attention should be paid to the changes in Sino - US tariff policies. On the industrial - level, the actual supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption progress of coking coal mines [6]. Trading Strategy - Short - term trading, with RB2510 focusing on the range of [3100 - 3300] [7]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic main production areas are affected by frequent accidents, underground production disturbances, and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" policy, resulting in continuous supply - side disturbances and a tight overall supply pattern. The customs clearance volume at Mongolian ports is gradually recovering, but the downstream's receiving sentiment is cautious [31]. - Demand: The strengthening of the futures price has slightly boosted the sentiment in the spot market, but the operations of downstream coking and steel enterprises and intermediate trading links are still cautious. The online auctions of coal mines show differentiation, with both rises and falls. Most coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure, and the pit - mouth quotations remain stable overall [31]. - Outlook: The coking coal market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the "276" policy in domestic coal mines, the continuity of Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the changes in the replenishment rhythm of coking and steel enterprises [31]. Coke - Supply: After five rounds of price increases for coke, the profitability of mainstream coking enterprises has marginally improved, driving a slight increase in the start - up rhythm. However, due to the continuous rise in raw material coal prices, the cost pressure of some coking enterprises has not been fully alleviated, and there is a slight production - restriction phenomenon. The overall start - up remains stable [31]. - Demand: With the marginal improvement in coke arrivals, the inventory pressure of steel mills has slightly eased, and the replenishment is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The molten iron production remains high and volatile, providing rigid support for coke, but some steel mills may plan maintenance due to profit considerations, and the procurement rhythm is cautious [31]. - Cost: The price of coking coal remains high and volatile, with the increase of some coal types narrowing and the trading enthusiasm cooling down, but the overall cost center is still at a relatively high level, providing certain support for the coke price [31]. - Outlook: The coke market has a game between steel and coking enterprises, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the marginal improvement space is limited. Attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal, the profit changes of steel mills, and policy dynamics [31]. Trading Strategy - Neutral and wait - and - see [31]. Iron Ore Main Points - Market Review: Last week, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, with the weekly line closing in the red and overall small fluctuations. After the macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month subsided, commodities generally showed a correction, but the correction range of the black series was small due to factors such as military - parade production restrictions and coking coal disturbances [71]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments are gradually recovering after the end - of - fiscal - year rush of overseas mines, but the current shipment volume has slightly declined. The arrivals continue to increase due to the previous shipment rush, and the port inventory has further decreased. Domestic northern mines have seen a slight decline in production due to rainfall [71]. - Demand: The profitability of steel mills has continued to rise to a new high this year. Large blast furnaces are under maintenance, and the molten iron production has slightly decreased. Steel mills have replenished their inventories, but the inventory level is still lower than the same - period level [71]. - Outlook: The market is starting to price in events such as military - parade production restrictions, crude steel production restrictions, and blast furnace maintenance, which means there are expectations of a decline in molten iron demand. However, considering the many potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in molten iron will not be significant, which is beneficial for the iron ore market. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will be volatile and upward - trending [71]. Trading Strategy - Consider using iron ore as the long - leg when shorting other black - series varieties, and focus on the 770 support level for the 09 contract [71].