商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The tariff misunderstanding affects the price spread [2]. - Silver: Shows a slight rebound [2]. - Copper: The weak US dollar supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Trades in a narrow range [2]. - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price [2]. - Tin: Ranges within a certain interval [2]. - Aluminum: The volatility drops to a historical low [2]. - Alumina: There are differences in the market [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Trades in a narrow range [2]. - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end weakens, and the logic at the smelting end limits the elasticity [2]. - Stainless steel: The multi - short game intensifies, and the steel price fluctuates [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 is 787.80 with a daily increase of 0.35%, and the night - session closing price is 786.80 with a night - session increase of 0.12%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 is 9278 with a daily increase of 0.22%, and the night - session closing price is 9279.00 with a night - session increase of 0.02%. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts have different degrees of change compared with the previous day [5]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Gold and Comex Gold has different changes, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures also show different trends [5]. - News: There are reports about the possible 39% tariff on Swiss gold exports by the US, which later clarified that no gold tariff would be imposed. Also, there are macro - economic news such as China's CPI and PPI data [8][20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [8]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 78,490 with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price is 78360 with a night - session decrease of 0.17%. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts change compared with the previous day [10]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Copper and LME Copper changes, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures also change [10]. - News: There are macro - news like the possible Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and the expected interest rate cut, and micro - news about the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products [10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22515 with a daily decrease of 0.29%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M is 2834 with a daily increase of 0.66%. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts change compared with the previous day [13]. - News: The euro - zone's Q2 economic growth slows down, and the market's expectation of the European Central Bank's further interest rate cut decreases [13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract is 16845 with a daily decrease of 0.18%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M is 2003.5 with a daily decrease of 0.17%. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts change compared with the previous day [16]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Lead and LME Lead decreases, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures also change [16]. - News: There are news about the possible Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and the expected interest rate cut [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 267,780 with a daily decrease of 0.06%, and the closing price of LME Tin 3M is 33,605 with a daily decrease of 0.68%. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts change compared with the previous day [19]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Tin and LME Tin changes, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures also change [19]. - News: There are various macro - economic news such as China's CPI and PPI data, and the possible Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is - 1 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20750, and the closing price of LME Aluminum 3M is 2622. The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of relevant contracts of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have different degrees of change compared with different time points [22]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of aluminum and alumina changes, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures also change [22]. - News: There are news about China's monetary policy and social retail data [23]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0 [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 121,180, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,985. The trading volumes and open interests of relevant contracts change compared with different time points [24]. - Industry Chain Data: The prices of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chain, such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate, and stainless - steel products, change [24]. - News: There are news about Canada's possible stop of nickel exports to the US, the production of nickel - iron projects in Indonesia, and the environmental violations in the Indonesian nickel - iron industrial park [24][25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [28].