信用债策略周报：3年内信用利差压缩后，如何操作-20250811

Group 1 - The credit bond market continues to show a recovery trend, with short to medium-term bonds outperforming long-term bonds, as evidenced by a narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in 1-year and 3-year AA-rated bonds [1][4] - The overall credit spread for 1-year bonds narrowed by approximately 3-4 basis points, while 5-year and longer bonds saw a reduction of 1-2 basis points [1][9] - Specific sectors such as urban investment bonds and financial bonds experienced significant spread compression, with 1-year AA-rated urban investment bonds showing a notable decrease of 4 basis points [1][9] Group 2 - The overall turnover rate in the credit bond market decreased from 2.34% to 1.99%, indicating a decline in market trading activity [2] - The weighted average transaction duration for all credit bonds fell from 3.4 years to 3.1 years, with urban investment bonds maintaining an average duration of around 3.0 years [2][10] - The proportion of TKN (traded notional) in various credit bond categories generally increased, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [2][10] Group 3 - Investment funds were the primary contributors to the increased allocation in credit bonds, particularly focusing on bonds with maturities of 3 years or less [3] - Insurance funds shifted from net buying to net selling in ultra-long-term secondary capital bonds, indicating a change in investment strategy [3] - The net buying scale of credit bonds by wealth management products decreased, despite a sustained increase in allocation over the past three weeks [3] Group 4 - There is a potential for further spread compression in long-term credit bonds, suggesting that investors should consider opportunities in 3-5 year non-financial credit bonds [4] - The cancellation of the value-added tax exemption on interest income from government and financial bonds has improved the relative attractiveness of non-financial credit bonds [4] - Trading accounts are advised to focus on liquid short to medium-term urban investment bonds or major bank perpetual bonds for better trading opportunities [4]