尿素早评：基本面仍有压力-20250811

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually subsiding. Looking at domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not significant due to the increase in port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 780,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On August 8th, compared with August 7th, UR01, UR05, and UR09 futures prices decreased by -0.34%, -0.50%, and -0.52% respectively. Among domestic spot prices, the price in Henan decreased by -0.56%, while the price in Hebei (small - granular) increased by 0.57%. Prices in Shanxi, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan/ton [1] 3. Upstream Costs and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.45%, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 4. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1727 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1728 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 108,076 lots [1]