国投期货综合晨报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price declined last week, and the geopolitical risk premium dropped significantly. The market refocused on the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and US reciprocal tariffs on oil prices. The outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting and the situation in Russia-Ukraine will still cause high volatility in oil prices [1]. - The precious metals oscillated at a high level on Friday. The official implementation and intensification of US reciprocal tariffs, concerns about the US economic outlook, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts pushed the international gold price to test the important resistance at the upper limit of the operating range in the past three months. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the oscillation [2]. - The copper price rebounded last Friday, but the market still lacks a clear main line. Part of the underground copper mines in Chile resumed work, and the indicators are waiting for the impact of tariffs. Pay attention to the changes in the premium or discount during the delivery of the 2508 contract this week [3]. - The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly in the night session on Friday. The consumption in the aluminum market remains in the off-season, but the output of aluminum rods has increased month-on-month, and the inventory peak may appear in August. The short-term trend of Shanghai aluminum is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [4]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the balance is in a surplus state. The "anti-involution" theme has led to sharp fluctuations in related varieties, and the price of bauxite overseas during the rainy season is firm, corresponding to the cost of 3,000 - 3,100 yuan in Shanxi and Henan in China. Alumina is under pressure to oscillate, but the downside space is also relatively limited [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai has been raised to 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor, but it has certain resilience relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity with AL [6]. - The expiration date of the main zinc contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are relatively positive, but the resonance between the macro and the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand is insufficient, and the capital congestion has significantly decreased. The fundamental situation is strong overseas and weak domestic. The rebound of LME zinc has a pulling effect on the domestic market, but the willingness of downstream buyers to accept high prices is insufficient. The zinc price rebound is under pressure, waiting for the short-selling opportunity above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. - The lead price oscillated at a low level, with low capital attention and light trading. Scrap battery recyclers have difficulty in purchasing at low prices, and secondary lead producers are reluctant to sell due to losses, resulting in a premium of 25 yuan/ton for primary lead over secondary lead. The willingness of downstream buyers is poor, and the rigid demand tends to purchase more cost-effective primary lead. Some primary lead smelters have regular maintenance plans at the end of August, and the overall supply of lead ingots is expected to increase month-on-month. The peak-season consumption still needs to be verified by the social inventory. Wait for the evolution of contradictions. The Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The "anti-involution" theme in China is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to the fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. In terms of inventory, the nickel iron inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of de-stocking. The Shanghai nickel is in the middle and late stages of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [9]. - The tin price oscillated and closed down on Friday. Pay attention to the support of the moving average combination. In China, pay attention to the changes in the high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plans of large factories and tin consumption. The SMM tin social inventory decreased slightly by 90 tons to 10,235 tons last week. Adopt a wait-and-see approach or choose short-term long positions opportunistically [10]. - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with heavy volume, and the market trading was active. The price structure is weak in the near term, and the spot price is quoted at 72,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry behavior is active, and the spot market trading has improved. The total market inventory is 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of ownership is obvious, and the downstream has increased the replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which has significantly followed the decline of the lithium carbonate price. The smelting output has decreased by 8% week-on-week. After the significant rebound of the lithium carbonate futures price, the game value has decreased. Look for short-selling opportunities at high positions [11]. - The polysilicon futures rebounded after reaching above 49,000 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the average price of polysilicon reclaimed materials remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton (SMM), and the upward push resistance is relatively large. The downstream component price has decreased, and the end-users still have resistance to high prices. Overall, there are still policy expectations. Pay attention to the progress of capacity management. The spot price increase has slowed down, and the trend may maintain range oscillation [12]. - The industrial silicon closed slightly higher, and the spot price quoted by manufacturers remained stable. The current market supply pressure is still significant. It is expected that the output in August will increase by 21,700 - 31,700 tons month-on-month. Among them, the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan are continuously increasing, and large factories in Xinjiang also have复产 arrangements. Although both the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon have production increase expectations, the expected increase is still less than that of industrial silicon. There are still policy expectations, and combined with the large decline in the previous disk, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - The steel price oscillated weakly in the night session on Friday, and the billet price in Tangshan decreased by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. The apparent demand and output of rebar have both increased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The demand for hot-rolled coils has dropped significantly, and the output has also decreased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The molten iron output has declined moderately but remains at a high level. Under the low-inventory pattern, the market negative feedback pressure is not large. Pay attention to the subsequent production restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places. From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continues to decline significantly, infrastructure growth has slowed down, the manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, and the overall domestic demand is still weak. The steel export in July remained at a relatively high level. The real estate market in Beijing continues to relax, and the decline in PPI in July has narrowed. The strong expectation brought by the "anti-involution" and the weak reality of the fundamentals are repeatedly gaming, and the market sentiment is still cautious. The disk may still fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [14]. - The iron ore disk oscillated last week. On the supply side, the global shipments are expected to increase seasonally in August, the domestic arrivals have increased, and the port inventory has stabilized. There is no obvious short-term pressure to accumulate inventory. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weak due to the weather, the molten iron output has decreased slightly in the short term, but the steel mills currently have insufficient motivation to actively reduce production. It is expected that the molten iron will remain at a relatively high level in the short term, and the replenishment demand for iron ore still exists. Pay attention to the progress of policy production restrictions in the future. At the macro level, there is still uncertainty in overseas trade, and the "anti-involution" sentiment in China has cooled down. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate at a high level in the short term [15]. - The coke price oscillated during the day. The sixth round of price increase for coking is pending, and the profit has improved. The daily coking output has increased slightly. The overall coke inventory continues to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is good. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the molten iron in the downstream remains at a high level during the off-season. The market sentiment has been boosted by the coal over-production inspection. The coke disk has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. The volatility will increase in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [16]. - The coking coal price oscillated during the day, and the market has high expectations for the coal over-production inspection. The output of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot auction market has improved, and the transaction price has mainly increased. The terminal inventory remains unchanged. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the production-end inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue de-stocking in the short term. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the molten iron in the downstream remains at a high level during the off-season. The market sentiment has been boosted by the coal over-production inspection. The coking coal disk has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. The volatility will increase in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [17]. - The manganese silicon price oscillated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons, still at a relatively high level. The weekly output of silicon manganese has been increasing, but the production increase rate is lower than expected, providing certain support for the price. The price of manganese ore has increased slightly this week. It is judged that the manganese ore will still accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, the supply exceeded the demand, and the on-balance inventory continued to decrease. Pay attention to when the on-balance inventory of silicon manganese will start to increase. The bottom of the silicon manganese price is gradually rising, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. Pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [18]. - The silicon iron price oscillated during the day. The molten iron output has decreased slightly but remains above 2.4 million tons. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand has decreased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron has increased slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance inventory has increased slightly. The silicon iron mainly follows the trend of silicon manganese, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. Pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [19]. - The current spot price of the container shipping index (European line) is clearly in a downward trend, and the freight rate is accelerating its decline. The price reduction mode has changed from "taking turns to test" to "competitive follow-up reduction". However, it showed a tug-of-war between long and short positions last week. The core contradiction lies in the game between the "weak reality" and the "high basis". The main contract is deeply discounted to the spot. The current futures price of 1,400 - 1,450 points corresponds to a spot valuation of about 2,000 - 2,100 US dollars/FEU, while the actual spot central level is still above 2,800 US dollars/FEU. Looking forward, the reduction of blank sailings and the addition of extra ships in late August will increase the supply pressure, and the shipping companies are likely to accelerate the "price-for-volume" strategy to maintain their market share. If phenomena such as frequent and significant price cuts by multiple shipping companies occur, the market pessimism will spread comprehensively, and the market will strengthen the expectation that the freight rate central level in October will be lower than 2,000 US dollars/FEU (corresponding to the underlying index of 1,400 points) and even gradually approach the cost line (corresponding to the lowest spot level in the first half of the year around 1,250 points), pushing the disk down [20]. - The fuel oil arrival volume in the Asian market is abundant in August, and the ship bunkering demand lacks support. The ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has been declining month-on-month since June. The Singapore inventory remains at a high level, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore has continued to decline by 7 US dollars/barrel since the high in mid-July. The fundamental situation of the low-sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and combined with the recent weakening of the cost, the short-term pressure on LU is difficult to change. The decline of high-sulfur resources is relatively smaller than that of low-sulfur, and the price spread between high and low sulfur fuel oils continues to narrow [21]. - The sample refinery's asphalt shipment volume has increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase has remained stable. The de-stocking of refinery inventories has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased slightly. The overall commercial inventory has remained unchanged month-on-month and is still at a relatively low level in recent years. In summary, the production increase space on the asphalt supply side is currently regarded as neutral. The actual production release of major refineries needs to be tracked and observed in the future. The demand is in a weak reality and has the expectation of recovery. The asphalt single-sided trend follows the crude oil. Against the background of the weakening of crude oil, the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [22]. - After the CP reduction, the spot market of liquefied petroleum gas is running weakly, and the North American market is relatively under pressure. The import cost continues to put pressure on the domestic market with the increase in the arrival volume at the beginning of the month. The chemical profit has stabilized due to the decline in the finished product price. The PDH operating rate is still increasing, and there is bottom support for the domestic demand. The crude oil has weakened recently, but the current basis has rebounded to a relatively high level. The fundamental negative factors have been gradually realized, and the disk is running at a low level [23]. - After the policy was implemented last week, the urea market continued to decline, and downstream buyers and traders mainly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Currently, it is the off-season for agricultural demand, and the demand for autumn fertilization has started slowly. Compound fertilizers are expected to gradually enter the concentrated production period in the future. There are both departures and arrivals at the port, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. There are many domestic urea plant overhauls, and the daily output has decreased slightly, but it is still abundant compared to the same period last year. The short-term supply and demand situation is loose, and the market focus is on the changes in export policies [24]. - The overall operating rate of methanol olefin plants along the coast is not high, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rate of domestic production enterprises has decreased slightly, and downstream buyers maintain rigid demand procurement. The inventory in the inland is at a low level and continues to decrease. In the future, the import is likely to return to the historical high level. The short-term apparent demand along the coast is weak, and the port is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation. The market is expected to run weakly in the short term. In the long term, the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching. Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and downstream replenishment rhythm [25]. - The pure benzene price oscillated and declined with the weakening of the oil price, and the sentiment in the现货 market has cooled down. The domestic production has continued to increase, the import arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, it is mainly dragged down by the cost. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply and demand in the middle and late third quarter, and it may be under pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct band operations on the month spread [26]. - PVC is oscillating. The upstream price has increased, but the profit of chlor-alkali integration is still acceptable, and the cost support is not obvious. The supply has increased month-on-month due to the reduction of overhauls and the addition of new production capacity. It is the off-season for both domestic and foreign demand, and the social inventory has continued to increase since July. The demand is poor, and the production is at a high level. The short-term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated strongly in the night session on Friday. The industry inventory continues to increase. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali has improved month-on-month. The plants in the northwest region have resumed operation, and the supply has increased month-on-month. The demand support from alumina is acceptable, but the non-aluminum downstream demand is average. The downstream has resistance to high prices, and the spot price has declined slightly. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the long-term supply pressure remains. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [27]. - Affected by the weakening of the oil price, the prices of PX and PTA oscillated weakly. The processing margins of PTA spot and