每周投资策略-20250811

Group 1: US Market Focus - The significant downward revision of non-farm payrolls has raised concerns about the health of the US job market, indicating a cooling trend in employment and a weakening economy, though not yet at recession levels [11][15][19] - Major technology stocks remain the most reliable investments, with Dell Technologies and Tianhong Technology highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the AI sector [20][24] - The upcoming August non-farm payroll data is critical, as a three-month average of new jobs below 100,000 could lead to a high probability of a rate cut in September [19][23] Group 2: South Korean Market Focus - The Bank of Korea may pause interest rate cuts despite meeting inflation targets, as the overall inflation rate slightly decreased to 2.1% in July, aligning with market expectations [31][35] - A disappointing preliminary tax reform proposal has created pressure on the stock market, with concerns over increased taxes on dividends and corporate income [36][38] - The shipbuilding industry is expected to benefit from US-Korea agreements and increased demand for naval vessels, with Hyundai Heavy Industries identified as a key player in this sector [41][43] Group 3: Australian Market Focus - The Reserve Bank of Australia is predicted to cut interest rates twice more this year, with retail sales showing a strong recovery, growing by 1.2% in June [50][53] - Overall inflation in Australia remains moderate, with the June inflation rate at 1.9%, suggesting limited pressure on monetary policy [56] - There is optimism in sectors such as materials, technology, and healthcare, with specific companies like Northern Star and Xero being highlighted for their growth potential [57]