纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The soda ash and glass futures markets are currently in a volatile phase. For soda ash, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to factors such as high inventory, oversupply, and weak demand, despite cost support from rising raw material prices. For glass, the market will continue its weak oscillation because of the mismatch between weak reality and policy expectations, with supply - demand contradictions intensifying [6][27]. - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][10][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was weak with minor price fluctuations. The mainstream prices were 1060 - 1510 yuan/ton for light soda ash and 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash. Supply initially tightened due to enterprise maintenance but later recovered, while demand remained weak. With the weakening of macro - level benefits, market sentiment turned cautious and bearish. High inventory and oversupply will keep the market in a narrow - range oscillation. A wait - and - see approach is suggested [6]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. Prices of light and heavy soda ash increased. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly, with active purchasing by spot - futures traders and downstream demand being the main driver. Most enterprises had full orders and some stopped accepting new ones. Policy supported prices, but limited by over - capacity, the upside was restricted. The futures were oscillating at a high level. It was expected that soda ash 2509 would trade between 1200 - 1350, and a wait - and - see approach was recommended [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The domestic soda ash market was weak last week with small price changes. Supply tightened first due to maintenance and then recovered, while demand was weak. Market sentiment turned cautious and bearish, and high inventory and oversupply pressured prices. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and soda ash 2601 will trade between 1250 - 1400. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10]. 3.3 Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly production, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventories, daily basis, and weekly production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China. The multi - short flow is - 34.2 (slightly bearish for the main force), the capital energy is 62.9 (significant capital inflow), and the multi - short divergence is 89.2 (high risk of a market turnaround) [11][14][20]. Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Overall, the glass market is in an oscillating trend. Last week, the price of 5mm float glass in China generally declined, with the largest drop of about 70 yuan/ton in North China and 30 - 40 yuan/ton in other regions (except for the stable price in the Northwest). Demand was weak, and downstream enterprises focused on inventory clearance. Supply increased due to复产, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Affected by the gap between weak reality and policy expectations, the market lacked confidence and will continue its weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [27]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating strongly last week, but the increase was mainly driven by policy benefits with weakening momentum later. Some regions saw price corrections or reduced purchasing. The market was mainly driven by downstream rigid - demand restocking, with insufficient supply - demand support. The glass futures fluctuated greatly with a weak performance on the board. It was expected that glass 2509 would trade between 950 - 1150, and an empty - position wait - and - see approach was recommended [30]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The price of 5mm float glass in China generally declined last week. Demand was weak, and downstream enterprises cleared inventory. Supply increased due to复产, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Affected by the gap between reality and policy expectations, the market lacked confidence and will continue its weak oscillation. It is expected that glass 2509 will trade between 950 - 1150, and an empty - position wait - and - see approach is recommended [31]. 3.3 Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, weekly production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory. The multi - short flow is - 88.9 (strongly bearish for the main force), the capital energy is 26.0 (slight capital inflow by the main force), and the multi - short divergence is 96.5 (high risk of a market turnaround) [33][38][46].