豆粕、豆油期货品种周报2025.08.11-08.15-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean meal and soybean oil futures are both in a wide - range oscillation stage. For soybean meal, the high inventory and good US weather suppress price increases, while the expected shortage of fourth - quarter supply and rising Brazilian soybean premiums support the price. For soybean oil, high domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations lead to inventory accumulation, but uncertainties in biodiesel policy and Sino - US relations cause concerns about future supply [7][27] Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. - Trend logic: In the 31st week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2539 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.36%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons (0.14%) from the previous week. Good weather in the US main production areas strengthens the expectation of a bumper harvest, and sufficient domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations result in high inventory, suppressing price increases. However, there is an expected shortage of fourth - quarter soybean supply, and the continuous strengthening of Brazilian soybean premium quotes pushes up import costs. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, and the funds were relatively bearish. The M2509 was expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, and the funds are strongly bullish. The M2601 is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2980 - 3200 [10][11] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, and weekly inventory days [19][21][22] Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. - Trend logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 31st week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 428,200 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1174 million tons, an increase of 293,000 tons from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals and high - level oil mill operations lead to high - level crushing volume, but the weak terminal consumption causes continuous inventory accumulation. Uncertainties in biodiesel policy and Sino - US relations cause concerns about future supply. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [27] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, and the funds were strongly bullish. The Y2509 was expected to run strongly in the short term, with an expected operating range of 8000 - 8400. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, and the funds are relatively bullish. The Y2601 is expected to continue to run strongly, but attention should be paid to possible short - term oscillatory corrections, with an expected operating range of 8100 - 8500 [30][31] 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [42][43][47]