季节性因素推动7月核心CPI环比上涨0.4%

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and industrial producer prices remained sluggish. China's overall economic activity expectations are in a moderate state, and the inflation level may continue to hover at a low level for some time [5][15]. Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - Year - on - Year Data: In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous value of a 0.1% increase. From January to July, the average CPI decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year. Food prices in July decreased 1.6% year - on - year, pulling down the CPI by about 0.29 percentage points. Non - food prices rose 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, consumer goods prices decreased 0.4% year - on - year, and service prices rose 0.5% year - on - year [2][6]. - Month - on - Month Data: In July, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices. Food prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, non - food prices rose 0.5% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, and service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.26 percentage points. Core CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mostly due to seasonal factors [3][7]. - Eight - Category CPI: In July, food and tobacco prices decreased 0.1% month - on - month, housing prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, medical care prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, clothing prices decreased 0.3% month - on - month, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.8% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 0.9% month - on - month [8]. - Future Outlook: As of August 10, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 113.96, lower than 126.50 in the same period last year. Agricultural product prices in July hovered at a low level and slightly increased in early August, but the increase rate was much lower than that of the same period last year. Agricultural product prices are unlikely to drive up the CPI in August [3][10]. PPI Situation - Year - on - Year Data: In July, the national PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 3.4% decline. From January to July, the average PPI decreased 2.9% compared with the same period last year. Production material prices decreased 4.3% year - on - year, and living material prices decreased 1.6% year - on - year [3][11]. - Month - on - Month Data: In July, PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Production material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and living material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Some industries with large month - on - month price declines included coal mining and washing, non - metallic mineral products, and ferrous metal ore mining. Industries with relatively large month - on - month price increases included oil and gas extraction, oil, coal and other fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling [4][13]. - Industry - Specific Analysis: The price of the automobile manufacturing industry decreased 0.3% month - on - month, indicating continuous price competition pressure in the automobile industry [4][13]. PMI Situation - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The new order index was 49.4%, back in the contraction range. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. The service business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The new order index was 46.3%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.6% [5][15].