2025年7月物价数据点评：7月CPI同比由正转平，外部经贸环境波动正在对PPI形成新的下行压力

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0%, down from a 0.1% increase in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to July[1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 0.8% year-on-year in July, indicating a slight improvement in the basic price level[2] - The decline in food CPI was significant, with a year-on-year drop expanding from -0.3% to -1.6%, primarily due to high base prices from the previous year[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 2.9% from January to July[1] - The PPI month-on-month fell by 0.2%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved market price expectations, contributing to a narrowing of the PPI decline in July[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price level remains weak, driven by insufficient consumer demand and a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market[6] - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, with potential for further fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts[7] - The uncertainty in the international trade environment poses ongoing downward pressure on export industrial prices, which may affect domestic PPI trends[12]