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黑色金属数据日报-20250811
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-08-11 06:22

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Steel: Tangshan's mild production - limitation policy may not have a significant overall impact. The supply shortage may be compensated by non - restricted areas. The steel price is temporarily stable, with the lower support at the EAF valley - electricity cost. The price upside depends on market sentiment towards the policy. Exports are still high but showing a marginal decline [3]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Despite policy uncertainties, the anti - involution logic supports prices. Market sentiment is volatile. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, indicating resilient supply - demand. However, high industry inventories remain a concern [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The sixth round of coke price hikes is expected to be implemented, but downstream replenishment is almost complete. The implementation of over - production inspection policies is uncertain, leading to repeated anti - involution trading. The far - month contracts are favored, but the near - month contracts face pressure. The market is currently in a volatile state [4]. - Iron Ore: The anti - involution sentiment is rising again. The iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will limit price increases. The 01 contract has support and may rise after adjustment [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Contract Closing Prices: On August 8, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3286 yuan/ton (- 0.70%), HC2601 at 3429 yuan/ton (- 0.58%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3213 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), HC2510 at 3428 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) [1]. - Cross - month Spreads: On August 8, RB2510 - 2601 was - 73 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 1 yuan/ton, etc [1]. - Spreads/Ratios/Profits: On August 8, the coil - to - rebar spread was 215 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.07, etc [1]. Spot Market - Prices: On August 8, Shanghai rebar was 3330 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc [1]. - Basis: On August 8, the HC主力 basis was 12 yuan/ton, the RB主力 basis was 117 yuan/ton, etc [1]. Investment Suggestions - Steel: Focus on the EAF valley - electricity cost support. For arbitrage, consider long positions in the 01 coil - to - rebar spread. There are opportunities for partial profit - taking in basis trading [6]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Hold long positions in the 01 contract [6]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [6].