集运日报：中东局势或将恶化，盘面较强震荡，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the potential deterioration of the Middle - East situation, the market is strongly volatile with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1][3]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff turmoil, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, the forward - spread structure is dominant with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions and Price Indexes - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1130.12 points, down 12.0% from the previous period [1]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [1]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [1]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [1]. PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6; the SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [1]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9; the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, reaching a new high since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2]. Market Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors have been recommended to try long positions with light positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (which has made a profit of over 300 points). For the EC2512 contract, light - position short - selling has been recommended, and it is recommended to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the forward - spread structure is dominant with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Contract Information - On August 8, the main contract 2510 closed at 1436.0, with a decline of 1.34%, a trading volume of 5.64 million lots, and an open interest of 5.66 million lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [3]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical and Trade Situations - Trump has continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been determined, with a small price increase to test the market, and the market has slightly rebounded [3]. - The Middle - East situation may deteriorate, and the current detour situation cannot be restored in the near future. Coupled with Maersk's upward adjustment of its annual profit, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the market is strongly volatile [1][3]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli military's next - stage military operations will focus on two locations still under Hamas control, and the Israeli military has controlled about 70% - 75% of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli security cabinet has instructed the military to clear the "last strongholds of Hamas" [3]. - The Israeli government's security cabinet has passed the so - called "five principles to end the war", including disarming Hamas, repatriating all Israeli detainees, demilitarizing the Gaza Strip, maintaining Israeli security control over the Gaza Strip, and establishing a civilian government that does not belong to Hamas or the Palestinian National Authority [3].