Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel Products: This week, the supply - demand structure of steel products continued to weaken. The market sentiment was still volatile due to the continuous speculation of production cuts by Tangshan rolling mills. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position in the short - term and focus on the callback space [5]. - Iron Ore: This week, the supply of iron ore was relatively stable, and the demand changed little. The supply - demand structure change was neutral. In the short - term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the decline may be smaller than that of steel products. The recommended strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking - Price: The spot price of steel products decreased slightly, and the futures market fluctuated. The Shanghai rebar futures contract 10 rose 10 to close at 3213, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 to 3340 yuan/ton [9][12]. - Supply: The blast furnace operation rate increased slightly, while the EAF production decreased slightly. The total supply of the five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons to 869.21 tons this week. Rebar production increased by 10.12 tons, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7.9 tons [13][25]. - Demand: The demand for building materials decreased, and the demand for plates weakened slightly. The national concrete shipment volume decreased by 3.13% week - on - week. In July, the domestic demand for plates weakened significantly due to the unexpected decline in automobile sales [26][31]. - Profit: The profit of long - process production remained high, while the profit of EAF production decreased. The blast furnace profit rate was 68.4%, and the average profit of independent EAF construction steel mills was - 35 yuan/ton [32][34]. - Inventory: The social inventory of building materials continued to increase, and the inventory of plates accumulated at an accelerated pace. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23.47 tons to 1375.36 tons [35][38]. - Basis: The basis of building materials narrowed significantly, and the basis of plates widened. The rebar 10 basis narrowed by 30 to 117, and the hot - rolled coil basis widened by 23 to 12 [42][44]. - Inter - delivery Spread: The 10 - 1 spread was - 73, and the inversion deepened by 19 compared with last week. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread [45][47]. - Inter - product Spread: The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread widened. The current spread is at a moderately high level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity for the 01 spread to narrow [48][50]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking - Price: The spot price of iron ore fluctuated, and the futures market had a narrow - range movement. The 09 contract rose 7 to close at 790, and the spot price of Rizhao Port PB fines rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [54][56]. - Supply: Global shipments decreased, and the supply from distant sources tightened. The 47 - port arrival volume increased by 303 tons to 2622.4 tons [57][65]. - Rigid Demand: The pig iron production decreased slightly, and the demand declined slightly. The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons compared with last week [66][68]. - Speculative Demand: The port trading volume decreased, and the downstream restocking was weak. The average daily port trading volume last week was 95.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons compared with the previous week [69][72]. - Port Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly. As of August 8, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14267.27 tons, an increase of 45 tons compared with the previous week [73][75]. - Downstream Inventory: The steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 74.41 tons to 2756.28 tons [76][78]. - Shipping: The shipping freight rates showed mixed trends. The freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 0.31 dollars/ton to 9.98 dollars/ton, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 0.27 dollars/ton to 24.075 dollars/ton [79][81]. - Spread: The 9 - 1 spread narrowed, and the futures and spot prices were basically at parity. The 9 - 1 spread narrowed by 9.5 to 16.5, and the 09 contract was at a discount of 3.3 [83][85].
钢矿周度报告2025-08-11：产业炒作反复，黑色走势分化-20250811
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-11 06:34