长江期货贵金属周报：降息预期升温，价格具有支撑-20250811

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Provide Support for Prices" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous weakening of US economic data has led to an increase in expectations of an interest rate cut in September, causing precious metal prices to fluctuate strongly. The implementation of the new round of US tariffs, the poor performance of July's non - farm payroll data, and the downward revision of May and June data have reversed the market's expectations of employment market resilience. Although the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting was hawkish, market concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data released on Tuesday [4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Gold: US economic data weakened continuously, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $3458 per ounce, up 1.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3510, and the lower support level is $3390 [4] - Silver: US economic data weakened continuously, the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased, and silver inventories decreased during the week. As of last Friday, the price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, reported at $38.51 per ounce. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.7 [7] 2. Weekly View - New US tariffs took effect, July's non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, and data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, reversing the market's expectations of employment market resilience and increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries were announced, and the tariff increase was generally lower than market expectations, increasing the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell said at the interest - rate meeting that the conditions for a rate cut had not been met, and the meeting result was hawkish. Trump nominated a Fed governor. With the US tariff policy basically in place, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data [8] 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Not summarized in text form, mainly presented in charts including the US dollar index, real interest rates, currency exchange rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [12][14][16] 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 50.8 - The revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders in June was - 9.4% [19] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to the highest level in a month. As of the week ending August 2, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 221,000. The number of continued jobless claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 - Trump said he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan to temporarily serve as a Fed governor to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's unexpected resignation [21] 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 4062.44 kg to 1,200,128.17 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 5260.36 kg to 15,753,687.21 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 25,570 kg to 1,158,387 kg [10] 7. Fund Holdings - As of August 5, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,217 contracts, an increase of 13,029 contracts from last week - As of August 5, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 48,500 contracts, a decrease of 8719 contracts from last week [10] 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - August 12 (Tuesday), 20:30: US July CPI annual rate unadjusted - August 14 (Thursday), 20:30: US July PPI annual rate - August 15 (Thursday), 20:30: US July retail sales annual rate; 22:00: US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index [32]