宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周沪深300指数上涨1.23%-20250811

Macro Economic Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.23% this week, with the CSI 300 futures increasing by 1.38% [1][12] - The futures for coking coal surged by 9.37%, while the main contract for iron ore saw a modest increase of 0.70% [1][12] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao increased by 1 basis point to 1.05%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.69% [1][12] Export Performance - In July, China's exports maintained resilience, primarily due to two factors: the continuation of Sino-U.S. trade talks and improvements in the prices of certain export goods [2] - Specific categories such as household ceramics, shoes, integrated circuits, and home appliances showed price increases, which helped offset declines in export volumes [2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation remains: equities > commodities > bonds > cash [3][4] - The focus for equities is on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while bonds are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the equity-bond relationship [4][13] Industry Insights - The A-share market saw widespread index increases, with the leading indices being the CSI 1000 (up 2.51%), Shanghai Dividend (up 2.23%), and Shanghai Composite (up 2.11%) [37] - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals (up 5.83%), machinery (up 5.75%), and defense industry (up 5.24%), while the pharmaceutical and restaurant tourism sectors experienced slight declines [37][38] Economic Data - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month [24] - The total value of China's goods trade in July reached 3.91 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [24] High-Tech Industry Developments - The 2025 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing, focusing on key areas such as aging society responses and smart manufacturing upgrades [39] - China's production of industrial and service robots saw significant year-on-year growth, with industrial robots increasing by 35.6% [39][40]