Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The global commodity market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and weather conditions, leading to different trends in different commodities [1][34] - In the financial market, the A - share market shows a narrow - range consolidation, and the market style suggests an increase in the allocation of technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [46] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, international oil prices declined, with Brent 10 - contract down 4.6% and SC09 - contract down 7.22%. Geopolitical risk premiums dropped significantly. The market focuses on OPEC+ production increases and the impact of US reciprocal tariffs on oil prices. High volatility is expected due to the Trump - Putin meeting and the Russia - Ukraine situation [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has abundant arrivals, and the ship - bunkering demand lacks support. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and the high - sulfur to low - sulfur fuel oil price spread continues to narrow [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: After the CP reduction, the spot market is weak. The North American market is under pressure, and the import cost affects the domestic market. However, there is bottom - support for domestic demand, and the futures price is at a low level [23] - Asphalt: The sample refinery's shipment volume increased slightly, and the overall commercial inventory remained flat. The supply increase space is neutral, and the demand needs to be repaired. The asphalt price follows the crude oil price, and the BU crack spread has rebounded recently [22] Metals - Precious Metals: On Friday, precious metals oscillated at a high level. The US reciprocal tariffs, economic concerns, and interest - rate cut expectations pushed the international gold price to test the resistance. A "buy - on - dips" strategy is recommended during the oscillation [2] - Base Metals: - Copper: Last Friday, the copper price rebounded. The market lacks a clear direction. Some Chilean underground copper mines resumed production. Attention should be paid to the 2508 contract delivery and the change in the premium or discount [3] - Aluminum: On Friday night, the Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated narrowly. The aluminum market is in the off - season, but the aluminum rod production increased. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [4] - Zinc: The main - contract expiration falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The macro and fundamental factors do not resonate well. The LME zinc price rebound pulls the domestic market, but the zinc price rebound is under pressure. Short - selling opportunities are awaited above 23,500 yuan/ton [7] - Lead: The lead price oscillated at a low level, with low trading volume. The scrap - battery recycling is difficult at low prices, and the refined - scrap price spread is 25 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The "anti - involution" theme is ending, and nickel is expected to return to its fundamentals. The inventory situation shows that the overall inventory level is still high. Short - selling is recommended as the nickel price is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [9] - Tin: Last Friday, the tin price oscillated and closed lower. Attention should be paid to the moving - average support and the change in high social inventory [10] - Manganese & Silicon Alloys: For manganese silicon and silicon iron, the prices oscillate. The iron - water production remains high, and the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous highs [18][19] Building Materials - Steel Products (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil): On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly. The rebar's apparent demand and production increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The hot - rolled coil's demand and production declined, and the inventory also increased. The market is in a state of "strong expectation vs. weak reality" [14] - Iron Ore: The iron - ore futures price oscillated last week. The global shipment is expected to increase seasonally in August, and the port inventory has stabilized. The terminal demand is weak, but the steel mills' demand for replenishment remains. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [15] - Coke & Coking Coal: The prices of coke and coking coal oscillated. The coking industry's profit improved, and the inventory decreased. The prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high volatility and limited downside space [16][17] Chemicals - Urea: After the policy implementation last week, the urea market declined. It is the off - season for agricultural demand, and the export policy is the focus of the market [24] - Methanol: The coastal olefin plants' operation rate is low, and the port inventory increased significantly. In the long - term, with the approaching of the peak season, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and downstream inventory - building [25] - Pure Benzene: The pure - benzene price oscillated and declined due to the weakening oil price. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter later stage [26] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC oscillated, with increased supply and weak demand. Caustic soda oscillated strongly on Friday night, but the long - term supply pressure is high [27] - PX & PTA: Affected by the weak oil price, PX and PTA prices oscillated weakly. There is room for the PTA processing margin to repair [28] - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene - glycol price oscillated and declined due to the weak oil price and port inventory increase. The short - term trend is weak oscillation [29] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The short - fiber price followed the raw - material price down. The bottle - chip's processing margin improved slightly, but the long - term capacity surplus is a pressure [30] Agricultural Products - Grains & Oilseeds: - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: In the context of uncertain Sino - US trade tariffs, the US new - crop soybeans are difficult to enter the Chinese market. The soybean - meal market oscillates, and the US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation [34] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Overseas US soybean oil prices declined. The market needs to wait for the guidance of the US biodiesel policy. A "buy - on - dips" strategy is recommended [35] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report is awaited. The domestic rapeseed market may oscillate weakly in the short - term [36] - Corn: The Dalian corn futures price continued to decline weakly. The auction of imported corn had a low success rate [38] - Other Agricultural Products: - Cotton: The US cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton inventory decreased, and the downstream operation rate was stable. Temporary observation is recommended [41] - Sugar: The US sugar price oscillated. The Brazilian production expectation is bearish. The domestic sugar market has less inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [42] - Apples: The apple futures price increased. The price of early - maturing apples started high and then declined. The market focuses on the new - season's yield estimate [43] - Wood & Pulp: The wood futures price oscillated. The supply - demand situation improved, and the price is expected to rise. The pulp price oscillated, with relatively high inventory and weak demand [44][45] Other Commodities - Shipping Index (European Line): The spot freight rate is falling, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify in late August. The market may be pessimistic, pushing the futures price down [20]
综合晨报-20250811
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-11 06:45