碳酸锂日评：矿端扰动持续发酵-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On August 8th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The profit has been restored, and the production of lithium carbonate has rebounded. However, disturbances at the mining end in Jiangxi have intensified. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the progress at the Jiangxi mining end and adopt short - term operations. (View score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures and Spot Price Information - On August 8th, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 75,300 yuan/ton, 76,640 yuan/ton, 76,960 yuan/ton, and 76,960 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 5,300 yuan/ton, 4,720 yuan/ton, 4,660 yuan/ton, and 4,660 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 895,609 hands (+128,940), and the open interest was 320,706 hands (+30,874) [3]. - The registered warehouse receipts were 18,829 tons (+2,386), and the social inventory decreased. The smelters and others reduced inventory, while the downstream increased inventory [3]. - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton (+800), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton (+800) [3]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.05 US dollars/kg (unchanged), and the average prices of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 500 yuan/ton [3]. - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777 US dollars/ton (+20), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phosphate - lithium - aluminum stone also increased [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Information - On the supply side, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week. On the demand side, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and the production plan of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3]. 3.3 Market News - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports starting interest rate cuts in September and cutting interest rates three times this year. JPMorgan Chase has changed its expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year from once to three times [3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in July 2025, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month; the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed for the first time since March [3]. - According to the Futures Daily, the mining end under CATL has determined to stop production, and relevant personnel said there is no short - term plan for resumption [3].