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航运衍生品数据日报-20250811
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-08-11 06:44

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The spot price of shipping has peaked, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of prices until the end of October. The shipping companies are facing increasing pressure to secure cargo, and the current spot freight rates have entered a rapid downward phase. The freight rates on the European route are expected to break through the 2000 mark in September [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Current and Previous Values and Changes: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1490, a previous value of 1551, and a decline of -3.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1201, a previous value of 1233, and a decline of -2.59%. Other routes such as SCFI - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.2 Shipping Contracts - Contract Price Changes: Contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., show different price changes. For example, EC2506 has a price increase of 0.17% [5]. - Contract Positions: The positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508 show different changes. For example, the position of EC2606 decreased by 8 [5]. - Contract Month - to - Month Differences: The month - to - month differences such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 also show changes. For example, the 10 - 12 month - to - month difference increased by 18.8 [5]. 3.3 Market News - Tariff and Diplomatic News: The US and China need to decide whether to extend the current tariff suspension agreement by August 12. Trump threatens to impose higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 [6]. - Shipping Route News: South Korea will start pilot operations on the "Northern Sea Route" in 2026. Three Chinese small - scale carriers will provide several voyages on this route in late summer 2025 [6]. - US Import News: The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report shows that US imports in the last four months of 2025 will decline significantly year - on - year, mainly due to pre - stocking in late 2024 and the pre - peak before the tariff takes effect this year [6]. 3.4 Market Analysis - Market Trend: The market is in a volatile state [7]. - Spot Price Analysis: The spot price has peaked and is in a downward phase. Shipping companies on the European route are under great pressure to secure cargo, and the spot freight rates are expected to decline further [8]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - Strategy Suggestion: Short the October contract on rallies (take profit gradually as the recent decline is large), and hold the long - December and short - April spread [9].