甲醇日评：内地煤制甲醇供应逐步增加-20250811

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report has a weak outlook on the fundamentals of methanol. In terms of valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have declined slightly, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories of downstream MTO enterprises and expected port inventory accumulation, the methanol rebound space is expected to be limited [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2475 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.88%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2439 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA09 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions decreased on 2025/8/8 compared to the previous day, except in Shaanxi where it increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (0.35%). The prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - Price difference: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 95 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, up 19.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b) Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased by 2.5 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 495 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 445.20 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.40%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 500 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit was 34.20 yuan/ton, down 28.80 yuan/ton (-45.71%); East China MTO profit was - 654.57 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-2.03%). Among other downstream products, acetic acid profit decreased by 11.08 yuan/ton (-5.13%), MTBE profit increased by 10 yuan/ton (4.82%), and the profits of formaldehyde and other products remained unchanged [1]. d) Important Information - Domestic information: The main methanol contract MA2509 decreased slightly, opening at 2391 yuan/ton, closing at 2383 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 298,400 lots and an open interest of 406,384. All contracts except 2508 had trading volume [1]. - Foreign information: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1]. e) Summary The report maintains a weak expectation for methanol fundamentals. Although the anti - involution policy may cause fluctuations in coking coal and affect the methanol market, the actual impact on methanol production is limited. The supply of inland coal - based methanol is increasing, and with high downstream inventories and expected port inventory accumulation, the upward space for methanol prices is expected to be limited [1].