沥青（BU）：原油六连跌，成本端偏弱，自身供需矛盾不突出

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of asphalt is affected by the weak cost side due to the six - consecutive - day decline in crude oil prices, while its own supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil and show an oscillating trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: In August, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 2.41 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 130,000 tons (5%) and a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons (25%). Imported asphalt from South Korea has a reduced arrival volume, supporting the increase in import prices [3]. - Demand: The release of demand is lower than expected. Rain in some northern regions has hindered rigid demand, and the actual trading atmosphere in the southern market is weak. This week's shipment volume is 418,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.2% [3]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic refinery inventory is in a destocking state, especially in North China. The social inventory has a slight accumulation, with the most obvious accumulation in East China [3]. - Cost: International oil prices have declined across the board due to multiple negative factors, and the price of US oil has fallen below the key level of $65 [3]. - Investment Viewpoint: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will follow the trend of crude oil, showing an oscillating trend [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should focus on the oscillating trend, and for arbitrage, pay attention to the 9 - 12 reverse spread [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China, South China, and other regions, as well as the import prices from South Korea and Singapore [5][12]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - Spread: The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread and the spread between asphalt and coking materials [17][18]. - Basis: It presents the basis data of asphalt in main regions such as South China, East China, and Shandong [21]. 3.4 Supply - Scheduled Production: In August, the production plans of different refinery groups vary. The planned production of local refineries has increased year - on - year and month - on - month [3]. - Capacity Utilization: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of asphalt in different regions and time periods [34][37]. - Maintenance Loss: It presents the weekly and monthly maintenance loss data of asphalt in China [41]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The report shows the production gross profit data of asphalt in Shandong and the price, premium, and port inventory data of diluted asphalt [45][48]. 3.6 Inventory - Refinery Inventory: This week, the domestic refinery inventory is in a destocking state, especially in North China [3]. - Refinery Inventory Rate: It presents the inventory rate data of refineries in different regions and time periods [56]. - Social Inventory: This week, the domestic social inventory has a slight accumulation, with the most obvious accumulation in East China [3]. 3.7 Demand - Shipment Volume: This week's shipment volume is 418,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.2%. The shipment volume in Shandong has decreased significantly, while that in East China has increased significantly [3]. - Downstream Operating Rate: It presents the operating rate data of downstream industries such as road - modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [65][69].