玻璃纯碱（FG&SA）：弱现实延续，价格承压为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists. The near - term prices are constrained by the weak reality, with the oversupply situation continuing. For glass, demand has some resilience but is hard to improve in the off - season, supply is stable, and inventory accumulates significantly. For soda ash, supply returns to a high level, demand weakens, costs provide support, but near - term inventory is large and faces delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on long positions in the far - month contracts for glass and cash - and - carry arbitrage for soda ash [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The industry start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable [3]. - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season. Speculative demand fades as prices decline [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices are mainly under pressure, and costs provide support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality remains, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Weak reality and strong expectations lead to price oscillations [3]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in far - month contracts for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy. Pay attention to daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Supply increases as maintenance enterprises resume production [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand weakens as prices fall [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Total manufacturer inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons from last Thursday, or 3.86%. Light soda ash inventory is 717,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1475 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices fluctuate significantly, and costs provide support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4]. - Investment View: Bearish. Weak reality and strong expectations, with high inventory [4]. - Trading Strategy: No unilateral trading strategy; take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage. Pay attention to soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Glass: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1063 (- 39), and the Shahe spot price was 1104 (- 80) [6]. - Soda Ash: This week, prices declined. The main contract was transferred to the 01 contract, closing at 1332, and the Shahe spot price was 1257 (+ 10) [11]. - Spread/Basis: For soda ash, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis both decreased significantly. For glass, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis also decreased significantly [20]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable. Glass production profits decline as spot prices fall [23]. - Demand: Resilient. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor. From January to June, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, the newly started area decreased by 20.0%, and the completed area decreased by 14.8% [26][27]. - Inventory: Accumulating. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Output returns to a high level. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Alkali plant profits decline as soda ash prices weaken [31][32]. - Demand: Weakening. Overall demand is weakening, short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand fades as prices fall. Manufacturer inventory increases significantly [35].