美国对等关税正式生效，国内进出口增速双双加快

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and rebounded, with industrial products showing divergent trends and most agricultural products rebounding. The main reasons include the lower - than - expected US non - farm payroll data, the expectation of domestic anti - involution policies, and the impact of US trade policies [3]. - Overseas, the US "equivalent tariff" has come into effect, the US ISM services index is low, Fed officials have signaled rate cuts, and OPEC+ will increase production. In the domestic market, export growth is under pressure in the second half of the year, and inflation data shows a pattern of stable core CPI repair and PPI at the bottom [3]. - In the short term, market sentiment will still fluctuate, and commodities are expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - Influencing Factors and Main Logic - Review: Domestic commodities rebounded this week. Industrial products diverged, and agricultural products mostly rebounded due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar index, domestic policy expectations, and the impact of US tariffs [3]. - Overseas: The US "equivalent tariff" is in effect, the ISM services index is low, Fed officials signaled rate cuts, and OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from September. The crude oil market may remain volatile and weak [3]. - Domestic: In July, exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly. However, exports will face slowdown pressure in the second half of the year. July inflation data showed that CPI may improve but remain low, and PPI will gradually improve with difficulty in turning positive this year [3]. - Commodity Views: The short - term market sentiment will fluctuate, and commodities will move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations and the Russia - Ukraine situation [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US Tariffs: The US "equivalent tariff" is in effect, with a 90 - day buffer period for China and the US. Non - US developed economies may face greater export shocks, and the impact on China's exports is complex. Future 232 industry tariffs may involve semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key minerals [3]. - ISM Services Index: The US July ISM services index was 50.1, lower than expected and the previous value, close to the low point in May and the lowest level since June 2024 [3][11]. - Fed Rate - cut Expectations: Three Fed officials signaled rate cuts. Market expectations for a September rate cut have increased, especially considering the possible influence of Trump's appointment of Fed governors [3]. - OPEC+ Production Increase: OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from September. The market may remain volatile and weak in the fourth quarter due to supply surplus and trade policy uncertainties [3][17]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - Trade Data: In July, exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly. However, exports will face slowdown pressure in the second half of the year due to factors such as high US tariffs and the end of some trade benefits [3]. - Inflation Data: In July, CPI was 0%, better than expected, and PPI was - 3.6%, slightly lower than expected. CPI may improve but remain low, and PPI will gradually improve with difficulty in turning positive this year [3][24]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industry开工率: As of August 8, the PTA开工率 was 75.24%, POY开工率 was 86.2%, and the weaving industry开工率 was 56% [32]. - Other Data: In July, some data such as the proportion of a certain indicator was 34.72%, 64.47%, 33.66%, and 1.01%. There were also data on sales volume and price changes [39].