策略周思考：交易中报季，追还是切？

Group 1 - The report highlights a contraction in the profitability effect of the innovative drug sector, with the Wande Innovative Drug Index and the Innovative Drug Concept Index declining by 1.08% and 2.10% respectively, and the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index experiencing a maximum drawdown of 4.97% during the week [1][10][11] - Short-term technical patterns and capital flows show a divergence, with significant inflows into ETFs despite the recent downturn in the innovative drug sector, indicating potential resilience [1][11] - Over 40% of companies in the innovative drug sector are set to disclose their mid-year reports after August 26, which may introduce volatility in the sector's performance due to historical patterns observed in earnings disclosures [1][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that the probability of success in "chasing" stocks during the mid-year reporting season may be lower than "cutting" positions, as historical data indicates that absolute returns tend to diminish over time after initial earnings surprises [2][40][46] - The analysis indicates that stocks with stagnant prices and forward valuations, such as those in non-banking financials, food and beverage, and household appliances, may present better opportunities for "cutting" strategies [3][50] - The report identifies sectors with a favorable technical setup, including telecommunications, electronics, and automotive, where over 30% of stocks are in a bullish alignment, suggesting potential for upward movement [3][57] Group 3 - Long-term valuation trends indicate that major drugs like Merck's Keytruda and AbbVie's Humira have the potential to drive significant revenue growth, but face challenges from patent expirations and declining sales, which could lead to rapid underperformance [1][28][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the "patent cliff" phenomenon, which affects multinational corporations (MNCs) and creates opportunities for domestic companies to capitalize on their R&D cost advantages [1][36] - The innovative drug sector is expected to maintain upward valuation potential in the medium to long term, driven by the intersection of domestic talent advantages and the challenges faced by international pharmaceutical giants [1][36]